Monetary Literacy & Mastery Foundation

Monetary Literacy & Mastery Foundation

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MoneyMan ·Financial News & Discussion ·1 week ago
Gold Bond Advocate Judy Shelton Joins Treasury Amid Bond Market Strains

GFN – WASHINGTON: Judy Shelton has joined the Treasury Department as counselor to Secretary Scott Bessent, bringing an advocate of gold-convertible government bonds into his office as inflation and deficit concerns drive up U.S. borrowing costs.

Her 2024 book, Good as Gold: How to Unleash the Power of Sound Money, develops the case for using gold-convertible Treasury debt to protect long-term bondholders. She has advocated a 50-year bond backed by U.S. gold reserves, with conversion into metal available at maturity.

Shelton argues investors would accept lower yields in exchange for that protection, reducing federal borrowing costs.

In a move likely to send shockwaves through the corridors of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has appointed renowned economist Judy Shelton as Counselor to the Treasury Secretary. This strategic hiring, finalized on September 30, 2026, positions Shelton, a long-time critic of fiat currency and proponent of sound money, inside the heart of America's financial decision-making apparatus.

Shelton is no stranger to controversy. During President Trump's first term, her nomination to the Federal Reserve Board was thwarted by Senate Republicans who viewed her advocacy for a return to the gold standard with skepticism. Now, with her new role in the Treasury, Shelton brings her anti-establishment monetary philosophy to the forefront at a time when inflation and federal debt have reached critical levels.

This appointment is not just a personnel change; it's a symbolic strike against decades of monetary policy that critics claim have hollowed out the U.S. economy. For years, Shelton has argued that tying the U.S. dollar to a tangible asset like gold could prevent unchecked fiscal expansion and restore stability to the nation's finances. Her arrival at the Treasury could signal the beginning of significant policy shifts aimed at challenging the status quo.

The timing could not be more significant. As Bessent and Shelton assume roles together, Shelton's prophetic words from 2024 ring loud: "But in 2026. Stay tuned." In recruiting Shelton, Bessent is sending an unambiguous message: the days of unchecked money printing overseen by the Federal Reserve are under scrutiny and potential restructuring.

Shelton's appointment deals a blow to the legacy of fiat currency that dawned when Richard Nixon removed the dollar from the gold standard in 1971. Opponents of fiat argue it has enabled fiscal irresponsibility and the concentration of economic power. With Shelton's advocacy for monetary reform now influencing U.S. policy directly, the debate over gold and sound economic practices is rekindled.

While the return of the gold standard is not imminent, Shelton's presence in Treasury underscores a pivotal challenge to the fiat currency order. Her perspective indicates a shift towards policies emphasizing fiscal discipline and currency stability, potentially altering the landscape of U.S. economic policy.

The ramifications of Shelton's policies on everyday Americans remain to be seen, but her track record suggests a focus on serving stable, practical economic interests over speculative financial engineering. As this story unfolds, it invites reflection: Is this the dawn of a new era defined by economic realism?

https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/p/gold-bond-advocate-judy-shelton-joins

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MoneyMan ·Economic Roundtable ·11 hours ago
You Got Richer on the Tax Form—and Nowhere Else

You Got Richer on the Tax Form—and Nowhere Else

You Got Richer on the Tax Form—and Nowhere Else

You Got Richer on the Tax Form—and Nowhere ElseSuppose you buy an asset for $100,000. A year later, it is worth $110,000. On paper, you made $10,000. Your investment rose 10 percent, so it looks like you are 10 percent richer.Now suppose prices throughout the economy also rose 10 percent during that...

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MoneyMan ·Extended Studies ·23 hours ago
Special Studies
MONETARY LITERACY & MASTERY FOUNDATION
EXTENDED STUDIES · SPECIAL COLLECTION

Special Studies

Independent explorations of monetary history, institutions, crises, and contested ideas.

EXTENDED STUDIES 3 FEATURES EXPLORE FREELY
SPECIAL 03 STUDIES
EXTENDED STUDIES RESEARCH · HISTORY · ANALYSIS
COLLECTION GUIDE Special Studies
01
MONETARY HISTORY The Monetary Record
02
MONETARY CRISIS When Currency Fails
03
CLAIMS & EVIDENCE Myth vs. Reality
SPECIAL STUDIES COLLECTION

Explore Beyond the Curriculum

Not every subject fits neatly into a lesson or research paper. Special Studies brings together MLMF's standalone investigations, interactive historical records, and deeper examinations of important monetary questions.

01
Monetary History

Trace monetary systems, currencies, institutions, crises, and reforms through time.

02
Monetary Failure

Examine what happens when confidence in a currency or monetary regime begins to break down.

03
Claims & Evidence

Compare familiar monetary claims with historical evidence, institutional structure, and competing interpretations.

01
INTERACTIVE HISTORICAL ARCHIVE

The Monetary Record

Follow monetary systems across more than two thousand years—from ancient coinage and metallic standards to central banking, fiat currency, commercial-bank credit, and the modern monetary system.

Explore major monetary reforms, currency lifecycles, financial crises, institutional changes, and the pressures that transformed monetary systems over time.

EXPLORE THE RECORD
More Than Two Millennia of Monetary Change
TIMELINE • CURRENCIES • CRISES • SOURCES
Explore The Monetary Record →
02
MONETARY FAILURE

When Currency Fails

What happens when confidence in money begins to break down?

Examine the forces that can weaken or destroy a currency: fiscal pressure, monetary expansion, political instability, rapid inflation, currency substitution, and declining confidence in the monetary regime.

◆
Monetary Crises

Examine periods in which monetary stability deteriorated or disappeared.

↑
Inflation

Follow the interaction between monetary expansion, confidence, and rising prices.

$
Fiscal Pressure

Consider how government financing pressure can interact with the monetary system.

◎
Historical Cases

Compare different monetary failures rather than treating every crisis as mechanically identical.

Examine When Currency Fails →
03
CLAIMS & EVIDENCE

Myth vs. Reality

Put familiar monetary claims under closer examination.

Separate simplified explanations from the underlying mechanics by comparing common claims with institutional structure, historical evidence, primary records, and competing interpretations.

INVESTIGATE THE CLAIM
What Does the Evidence Actually Show?
CLAIM → EVIDENCE → CONTEXT → CONCLUSION
Explore Myth vs. Reality →
HOW TO USE SPECIAL STUDIES Choose the question that interests you, follow the evidence, and then connect what you discover back to the lessons, research, tools, and discussions throughout the Foundation.
→
RESEARCH PATH

Research Outward. Then Connect It Back.

01
Choose a Study

Begin with the historical, crisis, or investigative subject that interests you.

02
Follow the Evidence

Examine monetary mechanics, records, sources, data, and competing interpretations.

03
Return to the Academy

Connect what you discover to MLMF lessons, Extended Studies papers, simulations, reference material, and community discussion.

❦
AN EXPANDING COLLECTION

More Special Studies Will Be Added

Special Studies provides a permanent home for substantial MLMF projects that do not belong to a single Academy lesson or conventional Extended Studies paper.

MoneyMan ·Economic Roundtable ·3 days ago
What Is Monetary Mastery? And Why Is It Different From Money Mastery and Financial Mastery?

What Is Monetary Mastery? And Why Is It Different From Money Mastery and Financial Mastery?

What Is Monetary Mastery? And Why Is It Different From Money Mastery and Financial Mastery?

What Is Monetary Mastery? And Why Is It Different from Money Mastery or Financial Mastery?Understanding how to manage money is important. Understanding the system that creates, distributes, and determines the value of money is something entirely different.Most people spend their lives learning how t...

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MoneyMan ·Questions & Feedback ·5 days ago
Introducing Study Tools: Notes and Learning Progress for MLMF Members

Introducing Study Tools: Notes and Learning Progress for MLMF Members

Introducing Study Tools: Notes and Learning Progress for MLMF Members

Introducing Study Tools: Notes and Learning Progress for MLMF MembersLearning is easier when you can keep track of what you are studying, save important thoughts, and return to where you left off.That is why we have introduced a new Study Tools feature for logged-in members of the Monetary Literacy...

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MoneyMan ·Economic Roundtable ·5 days ago
Deficit Spending and the Transfer of Costs to Future Generations

Deficit Spending and the Transfer of Costs to Future Generations

Deficit Spending and the Transfer of Costs to Future Generations

Deficit Spending and the Transfer of Costs to Future GenerationsWhen a government spends more than it collects in revenue, it must cover the difference. The usual methods are borrowing from the public or, in some cases, creating new money. Both approaches allow higher spending today. Both also shift...

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MoneyMan ·Economic Roundtable ·5 days ago
Currency Debasement: A Recurring Factor in the Decline of Empires

Currency Debasement: A Recurring Factor in the Decline of Empires

Currency Debasement: A Recurring Factor in the Decline of Empires

Currency Debasement: A Recurring Factor in the Decline of EmpiresMajor empires rarely collapse for a single reason. Military overextension, administrative decay, external pressure, demographic shocks, and institutional failure all contribute. Yet across widely separated times and places, one pattern...

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MoneyMan ·Extended Studies ·6 days ago
How Much Money Does an Economy Need?
Extended Learning
How Much Money Does an Economy Actually Need?
Research Paper • Intermediate • 12 Minute Read

Modern monetary policy begins with an assumption that is so familiar it is rarely questioned: as an economy grows, the quantity of money should generally grow with it.

More people are working. More goods are being produced. More transactions are taking place. It therefore seems intuitive that an expanding economy must require an expanding supply of money.

Economist Murray N. Rothbard challenged that assumption at its foundation. Across works including The Mystery of Banking, What Has Government Done to Our Money?, and Man, Economy, and State, Rothbard argued that money is fundamentally different from ordinary economic goods.

More food can feed more people. More houses can shelter more families. More machinery can expand productive capacity. But creating additional monetary units does not, by itself, create another house, automobile, factory, barrel of oil, bushel of wheat, or hour of productive labor.

“Any supply of money will be equally optimal with any other.”

— Murray N. Rothbard, The Mystery of Banking
❦

Money Is Not the Same Thing as Wealth

Rothbard's argument begins with a distinction that is essential to monetary literacy: money and wealth are not the same thing.

Suppose an economy contains houses, automobiles, factories, food, energy, machinery, land, natural resources, and millions of hours of human labor. Those things constitute real economic wealth.

Now imagine that the number of dollars in that economy suddenly doubles.

Has the number of houses doubled?

Have twice as many automobiles appeared?

Are there suddenly twice as many factories, farms, machines, or skilled workers?

No. The economy contains the same real goods and productive resources it possessed before.

What has changed is the number of monetary units being used to express claims against those resources.

Rothbard therefore argued that increasing the quantity of money cannot make society as a whole wealthier merely by increasing the number of monetary units people possess. As prices adjust to the larger supply, the purchasing power represented by each individual unit changes.

Key Distinction

Real wealth consists of goods, services, productive capacity, resources, and human knowledge. Money facilitates exchange between those things. Increasing the number of monetary units does not automatically increase the quantity of real wealth available to society.

❦

How Much Money Is Enough?

This leads to the question Rothbard considered surprisingly easy to answer:

How much money does an economy actually need?

His answer was that there is no particular quantity that an economy must possess.

Imagine two otherwise identical economies.

One contains $100 billion of money.

The other contains $1 trillion.

If both economies possess the same real goods, productive capacity, population, and resources, the second economy is not automatically ten times richer simply because its monetary units are ten times more numerous.

Prices would instead adjust to the quantity of money available.

A house that costs $100,000 under one monetary arrangement might carry a much larger numerical price under another. Bread, labor, land, machinery, and every other good would likewise be denominated in different numbers.

The numbers change.

The underlying real economy does not.

The economy does not require a particular number of dollars. It requires a functioning medium of exchange whose purchasing power can adjust to the quantity available.
❦

What Happens When the Economy Grows?

The strongest challenge to Rothbard's argument appears when the economy itself expands.

Suppose the quantity of money remains approximately unchanged while businesses become more productive, technology improves, the labor force expands, and the quantity of available goods increases.

Conventional monetary reasoning often assumes that the supply of money must rise alongside this expansion. Otherwise, it is argued, there will not be enough money available to purchase the additional production.

Rothbard rejected that conclusion.

If the amount of goods increases while the monetary stock remains the same, prices can simply adjust downward.

The same monetary units now command a greater quantity of goods.

Nothing requires every increase in production to be matched by a corresponding increase in the number of dollars.

Greater productivity can instead appear as greater purchasing power for each unit of money.

Rothbard's Insight

Economic growth does not necessarily require monetary growth. If production expands faster than the quantity of money, the adjustment can occur through falling prices and rising purchasing power rather than through creation of additional monetary units.

❦

Why Falling Prices Were Not Automatically a Problem

This placed Rothbard sharply at odds with the modern tendency to treat almost every sustained decline in the general price level as something dangerous.

Consider an economy in which technological progress and improved productivity allow businesses to produce more goods with fewer resources.

If the monetary supply remains relatively stable, many prices may naturally fall.

To Rothbard, that need not represent economic failure.

It may represent abundance.

A worker earning the same number of monetary units could gradually purchase more food, clothing, transportation, tools, and other goods as productivity increased.

A saver holding money could likewise see that money command a greater quantity of goods over time.

Rothbard therefore distinguished between falling prices caused by growing productivity and a destructive monetary contraction caused by banking failures, debt liquidation, or a collapse in credit.

Both may be called “deflation,” but they describe very different economic processes.

❦

The Angel Gabriel Thought Experiment

In The Mystery of Banking, Rothbard used a memorable thought experiment to demonstrate why simply increasing the supply of money cannot enrich society as a whole.

Imagine that a benevolent Angel Gabriel visits everyone while they sleep and magically doubles every person's money holdings.

Every wallet contains twice as much cash.

Every bank balance doubles.

Everyone awakens believing they are wealthier.

But the number of houses, automobiles, factories, farms, machines, and consumer goods has not changed.

Once people attempt to spend their larger balances, more money begins competing for the same available goods. Prices adjust.

The larger number of monetary units therefore cannot create the real prosperity everyone initially imagined.

Doubling everyone's dollars does not double society's wealth. It changes the number of monetary units competing for the same underlying goods.
❦

Then Why Does Money Creation Matter?

This raises an important question.

If any quantity of money can perform the monetary function, and if prices eventually adjust to changes in quantity, why should anyone care when new money is created?

Because in the real world new money does not appear in everyone's possession at exactly the same moment.

It enters the economy through particular channels.

Banks may create new deposits through lending. Central banks may purchase securities. Governments may spend borrowed or newly monetized funds. Financial institutions, asset owners, contractors, borrowers, businesses, and workers may receive the resulting money at different stages.

The first recipients can spend the new money while many prices still reflect the previous monetary environment.

Later recipients may encounter higher prices before receiving any comparable increase in their own monetary income.

Monetary expansion therefore does not merely increase an abstract statistic called the money supply.

It changes relative purchasing power during the adjustment process.

This is closely related to what is commonly called the Cantillon Effect: new money enters at specific points, benefits some participants earlier than others, and changes prices unevenly as it moves through the economy.

The Question Changes

Once money creation is understood as a process rather than an instantaneous increase in everyone's balance, the important questions become: Who receives the new money first? What do they purchase? Which prices rise first? And who encounters those higher prices before receiving additional income?

❦

Money Creation Does Not Produce More Real Resources

Rothbard emphasized that increasing the supply of money differs fundamentally from increasing the supply of ordinary goods.

If farmers produce more wheat, society has more wheat.

If manufacturers produce more automobiles, society has more automobiles.

If engineers discover a method of producing electricity more efficiently, society has gained additional productive capacity.

But creating another billion monetary units does not create another billion monetary units' worth of houses, food, energy, machinery, or labor.

Instead, it changes the monetary claims through which people compete for those resources.

Some people may become considerably wealthier in the process.

That does not mean society as a whole has experienced an equivalent increase in real wealth.

❦

Rothbard Did Not Require the Money Supply to Be Frozen Forever

Rothbard's position is sometimes simplified into the claim that he wanted the quantity of money permanently frozen at one exact number.

That is not quite correct.

Under the commodity-money system he favored, such as a market-based gold standard, the supply of monetary gold could still change.

New gold could be mined.

Gold could move between monetary and nonmonetary uses.

Coins could wear down or be lost.

Changes in the supply would therefore still occur through market activity.

His deeper objection was to the idea that monetary authorities must deliberately increase the supply according to some formula in order to accommodate economic growth, population growth, or a targeted price level.

Rothbard's argument was not that economists must discover the perfect quantity of money and freeze it forever. His argument was that no centrally determined “perfect quantity” is required in the first place.
❦

What Price Stability Can Hide

Rothbard's reasoning also changes how we should think about “stable prices.”

Imagine that improvements in technology and productivity would, absent monetary expansion, cause consumer prices to fall by three percent.

Now imagine that money and credit are expanded enough to push prices upward by roughly three percent.

The observed price index might show almost no change.

Policymakers could describe that outcome as price stability.

Yet prices are higher than they would have been without the monetary expansion.

Consumers have been denied some of the purchasing-power gains that greater productivity would otherwise have delivered.

This was an important part of Rothbard's interpretation of monetary history. A stable consumer price index does not necessarily mean that monetary conditions themselves are stable.

Monetary expansion can be occurring at the same time productivity is exerting downward pressure on prices.

❦

Money, Wealth, and Purchasing Power

Rothbard's argument ultimately requires us to separate three ideas that are frequently treated as though they were interchangeable:

Money. The medium through which exchange is conducted.

Wealth. The real goods, resources, productive assets, services, and knowledge available to society.

Purchasing power. The quantity of those goods and services that each unit of money can command.

These three things do not necessarily move together.

An economy can become wealthier while the number of monetary units remains unchanged.

An economy can create enormous quantities of currency while its productive capacity deteriorates.

A household's nominal bank balance can increase while the real purchasing power represented by that balance declines.

And a fixed or slowly changing quantity of money can support an economy producing vastly more goods than it produced decades earlier.

A Monetary Literacy Principle

The number printed on a monetary unit tells us very little by itself. What matters economically is what that unit can command in real goods, services, labor, assets, and resources.

❦

A Different Way to Think About Economic Growth

Modern monetary discussion often assumes that economic expansion should be accompanied by monetary expansion.

Rothbard asks us to reverse the question.

If an economy is becoming more productive, why must additional monetary units be created merely to prevent the prices of its goods from falling?

Why should greater abundance not appear as greater purchasing power for the people already holding money?

Why must productivity gains be partially absorbed by an expanding monetary supply rather than reflected in lower prices?

These questions do not require accepting every part of Rothbard's monetary theory.

They do require recognizing that a growing economy and a growing money supply are not synonymous.

❦

Conclusion

Rothbard's monetary insight is deceptively simple.

An economy does not need a continually increasing number of dollars merely because it produces more goods.

Money is divisible.

Prices are adjustable.

Purchasing power can rise.

If production increases while the quantity of money remains relatively stable, the existing monetary units can simply command more.

That means prosperity does not have to appear as continuously rising nominal incomes and continuously rising nominal prices.

It can appear as something much simpler:

The same money buying more.

And once this distinction is understood, the question surrounding monetary expansion changes dramatically.

Instead of asking only whether the economy has “enough money,” we can ask whether new money was necessary at all.

We can ask who received it first.

We can ask which prices changed first.

We can ask who gained purchasing power during the adjustment and who lost it.

And most importantly, we can stop confusing an increase in the number of monetary units with an increase in real prosperity.

The economy does not become richer because it has more units of money. It becomes richer when it produces more of the things those monetary units can buy.
❦
Final Thought

Rothbard did not argue that prosperity requires a permanently frozen number of monetary units. His more fundamental argument was that once money has been established, any quantity can perform its monetary function because prices and purchasing power can adjust. Economic growth therefore does not, by itself, create a necessity for continuous monetary expansion.

MoneyMan ·Economic Roundtable ·1 week ago
Why Modern Monetary Theory Is Not Factual — Expanded Evidence from Institutions, Data, History, and Formal Tests

Why Modern Monetary Theory Is Not Factual — Expanded Evidence from Institutions, Data, History, and Formal Tests

Why Modern Monetary Theory Is Not Factual — Expanded Evidence from Institutions, Data, History, and Formal Tests

Why Modern Monetary Theory Is Not Factual — Expanded Evidence from Institutions, Data, History, and Formal TestsModern Monetary Theory (MMT) presents itself as a neutral description of how currency-issuing governments operate. Its core claims are that such governments cannot run out of money, that s...

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MoneyMan ·Financial News & Discussion ·1 week ago
Gold vs. Stocks Since 1971

[music] Hey everybody, this is your host of the Freedom Report, Robert Kint, and it is Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026. Welcome back to the program. Today I'm going to be going over which assets have returned the most since 1971 using two different measures or basis. We're going to do it on a log chart so that you can see scale. For example, a log is a base 10 chart. Meaning, if you're seeing something go up on the chart into the next scale, it's a 10x. And so what a log does is tells you, for example, if

you go from 2 to 20, that's a 10x. Well, from going to 20 to 40 is not a 10x. You have to go to 200. So, it's really going to tell us what have been the biggest booms in these various assets since 1971. And then we're going to get into why the winner is what it is. Is it gold and silver? Is it one of these other assets and what that could mean going forward? So, this is really was intended to be a gold and silver focused video, but as I was getting into asset valuations and returns since 1971,

I thought, "Oh, there's a different story being told here as well." So, this presentation is going to morph from just an economic presentation to also a socioeconomic or a uh cultural presentation as well. And I think you guys are going to be interested. So, without further ado, we're going to jump right into it. So here is the presentation called inflation adjusted values what has actually done better go and sorry for the transitions on this presentation that's the template

downloaded and I didn't have time to remove them all right gold since 1971 well first of all why am I using 1971 that was the date at which President Nixon was forced to remove the dollar from gold convertability meaning we were the world's reserve reserve currency and we're no longer on the gold standard. That allowed the US government to take on as much debt and print as much money as it wanted to without worrying about backing it up with gold reserves either bought, mined or whatever the case may

be. And we took gold out of that system. It allowed the market to go to different valuations and levels. So this is in other words which assets done better in the fiat currency era. And I want to use two discounters or I want to use two uh I want to discount it for inflation. In other words, I want to see what the returns are after we deal with dollar price inflation if that makes sense. So this is a chart of gold and you can see uh this is 2025 number. So it has 2820. Uh obviously gold went up to 5,500. So

that's just the graphing software I was using. But gold's now gone up to like it's 4,300 now was 5,500. But it just went 71 to 2025. You can see that nomally gold is much higher than in the gold uh line squiggly line than it was for the BLS real 1971. Meaning if you took CPI and baked it into that cake, what was your return? Well, it was a whole log scale less. In other words, it was at least 10 times less when you factor in inflation. That's why I used a log chart. It shows scale, not necessarily

just bulk prices. If you look at shadow stats, and I use shadow stats because John Williams uh is an economist. He's been an economist since the 80s. He's done he's classically trained economist. And he will graph out uh real inflation as measured in 1980. And people say, "Well, that has to be inferior. We're so much more advanced nowadays." But in reality, what the government has done is they've messed up the inflation number with uh geometric waiting, hydonic adjustments, uh taking out certain

measures of uh uh price inflation, taking things out of the core PCE and CPI and really just confuses things. Well, what I like about John Williams is like I'm just going to use the 1980s version and I'm going to stretch it out over time so you can see you can compare 2026 with 1980s, 1990s, 2000, 2010s and get an accurate representation of where prices actually are when adjusted for real inflation. What's really happened to prices, not with all the goofy government screwing up the numbers and playing around with

the numbers, just the raw numbers. And you can see that um gold started at 40 and $40.80 in 1971 and and if discounted for real inflation through shadow stats, it's only worth 56 bucks. So gold really hasn't risen all that much when discounted for inflation. Now this could be a very damning chart to people in the gold and silver industry. And I'll do silver here in a little bit in the precious metals industry cuz like see see I told you you should be in real estate and stocks and bonds and uh tech startups and investing

in companies you know and even buying a grocery store or convenience store. Why would you be in gold? Look at that return. Wouldn't that seem to make the argument the gold has done very poorly when accounting for real inflation? And no. What it means is gold's done its job. it has accounted for real inflation and taken that value in. And wait till we get to some other charts to see how other assets have done using the same inflation measures. both the official government CPI number uh that we get

through the BLS well that the BLS is reporting we get it through the BLS and then the shadow stats number done by economist John Williams who uses an unfettered unmanipulated measure of inflation that allows us to actually compare with the past without a bunch of fiddling around with the numbers. Moving on to golden real terms. I took out the gold in nominal terms and we drew a line on this chart for where it was in 1971 and you can see that gold if you look at it in CPI terms has gone up a lot. It's

gone a whole log scale up meaning it would have done very well. That's why a lot of people look at that red line and say gold's done very well even when discounted for inflation. So I think gold is overpriced. But when you count it for real inflation, not government fiddled numbers, but just straight data that Shadow Stats produces, gold really hasn't gone up that much. Now, it's done pretty well since the pandemic, but and it did pretty well 2008 through 2011, 2009 through 2011, but overall, it's not

up that much when compared to real inflation since 1971. In other words, gold's done its job. If you look at silver since 1971, you see a similar thing. Nominal dollars in silver is at the silver line. And then you have the CPI number uh discounted number in red. Meaning we take the gold price movements from year to year and we back out or we discount by the inflation rate to see what the real return is. Is the asset growing over inflation? Because if I have to pay 5% more this year for my groceries, well, I want an

asset that captures that 5% at least so I'm not losing my purchasing power and hopefully returns something over that. So silver, if you look at it with the BLS line, it looks like it's gone up a whole log scale or over 10 times what it was in 1971. That's how to read the charts. It's not a price chart. It's a log chart. So if you look at it, silver's gone up at over 10 times from 1971. But if you look at it from shadow stats, what I call real, unfettered, unfiddled with inflation, silver has not

gone up 10 times. Silver is actually under the $158 base that it was in 1971. Meaning silver has lost value even though it's a precious metal. Even though it's used in just about any technological, medical, military, and many other uses, EV, solar, you name it. Silver's used everywhere. We think we're in supply deficit, at least yearly mining deficit. How could silver in real terms when discounted for real inflation be worth less than it was in 1971? That doesn't make sense. This would seem to

indicate that silver is undervalued and it hasn't really been doing its job against inflation like gold is. And I would agree with that because since the '9s, silver's really been industrialized. It's treated as a base commodity. And a lot of people think those commodity supply and demand characteristics with the mining shortages is drawing down all this world silver inventory. And eventually we're going to get to the point where silver really pops for those reasons. But right

now silver is not priced as high as it was in 1971 when accounting for real unmanipulated unmolested uh inflation data that John Williams pro provides us at shadowstats.com. By the way, if this interests you, and I'm not affiliated with John directly. I don't have no, you know, he's not been on my show, I think once in the last seven years, like him. But if you like his data, go to shast.com. He has not only inflation data, has a lot of measures in data. Sum's free, and then he has a

subscription service which pays for all the work that he does. All right, silver in real terms. Again, we move out nominal prices and we just look at CPI numbers versus shadow stats inflation numbers. And you can see with the line drawn across since 1971, silver in real terms, unmanipulated data, just straight price terms, uh, straight inflation price terms is under its 1971 average. So when people say that $65 silver is overvalued, it's really not when compared over time. You can see that on the time series

chart and it's been that way. It's been cratering since 1980. And it went up in 7980 because the high oil inflation and came down and except for like 2010. It really wasn't it didn't peak above its 1971 value in real terms when accounting for real inflation. All right, moving on to the S&P 500. Now, this is interesting. The reason I'm bringing in the stock markets is because I was just on Danny's show at Capital Cosm this morning and we were talking about the effect of inflation on assets and I was

saying that I don't think the stock market's really returning what most people think it is when you account for inflation when you account for stuff you got to buy. So, if you're sitting out there and you're a baby boomer or Gen Xer and you're thinking about you're in retirement or you're thinking about getting to retirement and you have a million dollars in different assets, how long is that million dollars going to last if if the returns on the S&P 500 didn't really keep up with inflation or

barely kept up with inflation? So since 1971 when we got taken off the gold standard, the S&P 500 is barely over its inflation adjusted value, meaning it's basically been flatlined for 55 years. Despite the nominal returns you get in the index and what you think you're making off of that, when you take into account real inflation, you haven't made much. And this is one of the reasons the government uses the CPI numbers they do because it effectively covers up how badly those assets are performing when

you consider real inflation and it's kept people in the system. Monies are captured in the stock market and 401ks and pensions and IAS and various retirement plans. And these BLS numbers make it seem like people are getting real value. But when you take into account the cost of things, go look at my real estate presentation from two weeks ago and how expensive houses are and then look at what's happening to diesel and gas prices and the price of the grocery store. You're going to look

at this and say, "Well, the stock market's really not increasing my purchasing power." And it comes with a ton of risk. Now, this is the top 500 companies in America. Let's go on to look at the Dow. The Dow Jones Industrial is more of a manufacturing industrial index. really looks at manufacturing and physical uh activity uh productive activity in the u in the country and now we're we're less of a manufacturer than we used to be. We make less. We still make things. We just

don't make it as much. And the service economy and the tech economy is much bigger. And interesting to note that that if you look at gold at the Dow in in in real terms discounted for real inflation, shallow stats, it's even. So the Dow has gone exactly nowhere. That means that the productive capacity of our nation in 55 years has not gone up relative to what we're paying to get stuff. That's an astounding an astounding chart. And it means despite all the technological advancements,

despite all of the the wonderful things that we have, we actually can't afford to buy more of it. uh these manufactured things and these companies that manufacture things when discounted for real inflation. Our standard of living really hasn't gone up the way that we think it has. All right. Now, moving on to the NASDAQ, you see a little bit different story here, especially starting around 2009 2010. The NASDAQ when discounted by either CPI or shadow stats has done actually really well. And

you can see it's gone up by a factor of 10 on shadow stats and by a factor of nearly 100 when discounted for inflation. And again log log scale. So I'm going from 10 to 2 to 10 to 3 to 10 to 4 on the left hand side of this chart. If you see here uh it started right here the NAS uh the NASDAQ actually right here in 1980 then went to this 10x scale then went to this 10x scale when you're measuring in this red and this BLS inflation the CPI. So it looks like NASDAQ has actually kicked button taken names really especially

since uh about 1990 when discounted for either inflation because even in shadow stats the number it looks like a 10x there right since about 2008 2009 so since the last since the great recession technology is more than 10xed or at least the value of the NASDAQ has and wait till we get a little bit deeper in the NASDAQ to look and see that it's not the entire NASDAQ it's really a collection of firms at the All right, moving on. What is the winner? Well, if you graph all of these out on a log chart

and you use the CPI, this is the top chart, or the shadow stats, the bottom chart, on both charts, the winner is the NASDAQ in purple. The purple line, whether we discount for shadow stats, real inflation, or the goofy government CPI inflation, the NASDAQ wins. The interesting thing to see is that the NASDAQ really only started consistently winning in 2010. So for the last 16 years, not really since 1971. Since 1971, almost everything did better with the exception of the tech boom in 2000, but the tech boom in 2000 was a little

premature in predicting the tech technology economy, but it came back around the great recession. And uh the top firms and NASDAQ and the technology sector has really been where all the money's been or the capital's been flowing to. Gold has done well. Gold is in blue on this chart. Gold is second place. So gold just by holding value, if you remember the chart we had before, gold's just held value since 1971. And the fact that everything else is below gold, including S&P, Dow, and silver is below gold means

that all of those are basically flatline or less than uh the value or offsetting inflation or your per, you know, maintaining your purchasing power whereas NASDAQ and gold are clearly on top. So, the winner really is NASDAQ. And it's like, okay, Rob, well, if that's the case, why are you keep telling us to invest in gold and silver? Why are you a Gold and Silver channel? Why aren't you just constantly talking about Microsoft and Amazon? We're going to kind of get into that for the

remainder of the presentation. And there's going to be a little bit of a warning there at the end of this presentation about where we may be going. And it doesn't just have to do with economics, but I've got quotes from other people to paint that picture instead of me just doing it myself. And it's interesting to see how long these quotes have been about, but I'm giving it away. So, let's keep going. So, the winner is technology stock. So, I so I said, okay, what are the changes in

technology since 2010, which caused the NASDAQ to separate from everything and just all this money has been flowing into it for 16 years? Well, you had the mobile app store super cycle where we got into the mobile phones like this one and we got into the apps and really technology came home to sit in our laps every day. It's no longer we're lucky to have a computer at work. Even if you're, you know, a construction worker or a plumber or you work on cars or you you're traveling around salesman or

whatever and you don't really on the computer, you're not on the computer a long a lot of time. Everybody gets on a computer with one of these. It's your personal digital assistant. And actually started off as PDAs because I used to work at a technology store back in uh the mid9s and I sold some of the very first PDAs including an Apple PDA and then it eventually morphed into a phone and then they combined the phone and the technology of a digital assistant and made it into like a little uh little

complex supercomput there and Apple transformed consumer electronics into an ecosystem. Then from 2013 to 2018, you had the 10bagger factory of cloud development. Uh Netflix pioneered streaming from the cloud. The stock sword 27x in 10 years. And since 2021, Netflix has been killing it. They can spend a billion dollars on content and make three to four billion dollars in revenues because they have over 300 million subscribers. And not all of their content has to hit. They just have to keep the misses to a minimum. And

when I was studying Netflix over the weekend for a different project, uh the way Netflix did it is they figured out that the middle is where you win. So the mi the middle spend, you know, the the5 to $30 million productions, whether it be seasons of a show or whether it be a movie, are the ones that win the bread and butters. But you got to have the blockbusters to attract new people and to keep people in the game. And then you also have your cheaper content like a lot of children's productions and

simpler content which also keeps the family sticky. And so Netflix has figured out the mix that keeps keeps everybody uh basically attached to what's going on with uh the content with Netflix. And so they're just printing money. Their return on investment of their investors is ridiculous. And they're they're billions of dollars of profit. They have more profit and assets than they do debt. and it keeps growing. Uh the other type of suites, Microsoft Azure launched in 2008. It's up over 20x since the

entire Microsoft company. Adobe put creative suite in the cloud in 2013. Uh AWS, Amazon went from 3 billion to $25 billion revenue. So those five years were about building the cloud. That's about building infrastructure. First, you get the the device that's going to power the apps. Next, you have to build the infrastructure that the apps run on so that people can use this and use their laptops and use their smart TVs. Then from 2010 to 2021, you had the zero interest rate policy. So the funds Fed

funds rate 0% for seven years. And so what happened was at 0% rate, a dollar of 2030 earnings is worth a dollar today. Meaning there there is no discounted time value of money in terms of earnings. And so if at 5% rates that goes down to 61 cents. So the analysis is that 40% of the value of of NASDAQ in these companies increasing was just the fact that we had zero interest rate. They could borrow at zero and then that meant their cost of acquiring capital was near zero. So that allowed them to grow exponentially. You say well why

didn't all the companies do that? And that's has to do with the next few bullet points we're going to get into. This is why it didn't happen in staples and commodities and others. COVID forced digitization. Lockdowns forced daily life onto digital platforms. This and others. Homeschooling on the computer anyone that people didn't weren't allowed to go to school. Worship services online. People ordering more from Amazon and Walmart uh delivery which is now ubiquitous. You have

Walmart drones delivering goods to your driveway. We just all got used to that during 2020 2021 because we couldn't go anywhere. And that forced people to digitize. It forced people to get on the system. and NASDAQ jumped 44% in 2020. The annual returns 19 since 2020 has been 19% which has been higher than any of the other the indices because those lockdowns drove digitization. They drove the online uh technocratic sort of model. Then in 2022 2026 it's AI you have the second cloud now you've got AI

and it requires all these additional data centers so that the computers now can do the thinking. AI and cloud computing demand now uh demand now accounts for 40% of the S&P 500 market cap. That's how powerful it is. And video alone 168.9% market cap growth in 2024. Uh the Magnificent 7, the top seven technology stocks soared to 17.6 trillion in December and they're up more than that. And then it was network effects, buybacks and capex. So this is where the economies of scale of centralization of technology comes into

play. Okay, so the the IT sector increased 450% since 2010. And one key thing I noted through my research is once you win one of these areas, search like Google or Bing or whatever, uh, social media or the operating system, once you win one of these categories of technology, whether it's what helps us do technology or how we're searching technology or what we're consuming over technology, your marginal cost is 0%. And that raises your return on equity, ROE. In other words, when you get money into your stock, you're able

to multiply that because you don't have a marginal cost. You've won the game. Everybody's using you. So, it was a concentration of all the technological functions into these single companies, the top seven single companies, which great gave them market power and it gave them almost unlimited returns. They could borrow money and still make a ton more than what they borrowed. So they were able to almost infinitely scale. Why? Because we had the people addicted to this. We had the lockdowns.

We already had the first version of cloud. Then we added the AI cloud and now everything's automated. Now you have less people in jobs and you have less people in small to medium companies and you have the centralization of power to the big companies. And now they're getting rid of labor. They're cutting jobs and letting AI take over some of those functions. And so the cost of these technology companies to do business is really falling really low. And that's put every other industry at a

distinct disadvantage. And what we're what we're seeing happen since 2010. And the reason NASDAQ has done so well is a concentration of wealth that's being sucked into these top seven companies and it's creating a juggernaut that nobody can defeat because it's technologydriven. It's lower cost. uh they have almost zero cost of capital. It doesn't matter what interest rates get to, they're going to beat it. And let's go to another chart here, which I think you guys will be interesting to

see. I've got a couple of three companies here at the top. We got uh Apple, Microsoft, where which are a combination of hardware and software, mostly software, and then Nvidia, which is a chip manufacturer. And you can see that their return on equity is very high. The return on investment capital, which is ROIC, is high. And then you got the whack. That's the weighted average cost of capital. So, let's talk through this. The last column, the weighted average cost of capital is the cost to

acquire a stock or pay out a dividend or whatever the stock costs are plus the cost to borrow debt. So, it's debt and stock. You go back to the original balance sheet equation of liabilities u the cost to acquire uh or issue stock and the cost to acquire debt. In other words, the cost of money. The weighted average cost capital is a cost of money that businesses use to finance their functions. Well, if they're getting a return on the equity, uh, that is return on stock and a return on invested

capital, which is a return on debt or other investments is twice as much as their cost of capital, then there's no reason for them not to take on that debt or issue that stock or even buy back stocks, which has a cost of its own, because they're going to get more back. They're going to get a rate higher than whatever that is. So, they almost can't lose whichever one they choose. They can take debt or they can recycle stocks. Nvidia, the same thing. It's 60% return on equity as a chip company, 50% return

on capital, and only has a 10% cost of capital. So, it's making five to six times what it borrows or pays back in stocks. Now, the broad NASDAQ composite, including a thousand companies, is much less. Their return on equity and return on capital is less than their their average cost capital. So, it's not all technology companies. It's the Magnificent 7 and Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia are really leading here into which they can do no wrong. It's like their business can do no wrong. Why?

Because all that capital is already in. They've won their various fields. Apple's won the the mobile phone war. I don't care about Samsung and the others. Apple really dominates in a lot of technology fields. Uh Microsoft dominates a lot of software fields. Nvidia dominates in a lot of chip fields. And so those companies basically have so much concentration of power. It's like how do you stop them? They're a juggernaut. And the rest of the technology companies are trying to catch

up. And so what happens is you have the power of all technology, the internet, AI, and all that stuff in a a very small group of companies including these AI companies which are rising. AI companies rising is going to be the next guys to take over the crowns from the Apples and Microsoft's Nvidas here in a few years. What is the outlook? What is the effect of this? Well, I've already talked about job loss. We've already talked about um lack [clears throat] of growth in uh opportunities for small and medium

business which businesses which create most of the jobs. But here are some quotes from people that talked about the effect of centralization of power and technology in the past. We're going to start with Dwight Eisenhower in his 1961 farewell address as president. We must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of the scientific technological elite. What he was saying is the companies are going to have more power than the government and they're

going to capture it. That's called regulatory capture and the government's not going to be able to stop them and neither would the people by extension of that because the government is the enforcement arm of the people. And Dwight was basically saying and you know we had the bomb and stuff like that had already gone off back then and he was looking at technology going uh this is the biggest existential threat. He also talked about other things. uh this isn't as quoted from his farewell address but

it's very important and relevant to the day and very preient for him to say that all the way back in 1961 you also have Aldis Huxley the famous author uh dystopian author who had a couple of dystopian books was very well connected and things that he wrote about seemed to in some to some extent be coming true in many areas of life and he said but the progress of technology has led and is still leading to just such a concentration and centralization of power Okay, connecting technology growth

to power just like Eisenhower. George Packer, a famous journalist said, "Today we have our own concentrations of economic power." This is in 2025. Instead of Standard Oil, US Steel and Union Pacific Railroad and JP Morgan and Company, we have Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft. The technology companies can consolidate powers better than the other industries. Even the energy industry because the energy industry uses what? Technology. technology is the pillar beneath the entire economy. That's why they're doing

so well because everybody uses them. Uh Christian Lewis Lang, Nobel Peace Prize 1921. Technology is a useful servant but a dangerous master. So what happens when AI basically is running everything in society? Is it a servant now or is it a master? And what does that mean for us? What does that mean for the economy? What does that mean for freedom? What does that mean for jobs? What does that mean for us as a society? That's one of the existential questions of our generation of our time. Uh technology uh oh going down to Marshall

McLuhan, philosopher, professor and intellectual. We shape our tools and thereafter our tools shape us. We create the technology and then the technology takes over and shapes the direction of our lives. And the last one by Jacques Ulu, the technological society, a book in 1954. Technique has become autonomous. It has become a reality in itself. It is the new sacred. And by technique, he means technology or how you do things. Technique and technology have the same base in in uh language. And he's basically saying technology.

There is the risk. look at the only thing that's outdone gold uh since 1971 and really since 2010 if we're really looking at the chart and that's NASDAQ and that's a concentration of power in technology and that is a real threat AI social credit scores uh things like that and it seems as though uh technology is is is on this this train that won't stop it's just going to keep going I would say that the only thing that's going to protect you from that is gold because gold at least

captures inflation and at least gold gives you an alternative way to to trade outside of technology like uh digital currencies or the digital dollar or the the online systems and I would advocate that gold is probably your safe haven if you're worried about those things you know so to answer one of the original questions that was po has been posed to me by my friends and has been posed lately to me is why would I invest in gold? Well, gold beats everything except for NASDAQ and technology, the top seven

firms. And so, everybody's piling money into there, but I would rather put my money in gold because I'm not so sure. I want those firms to have all this power and control because you see all the people that warned against it and what's going to happen over time and it seems like everything they're saying is coming true. So, I'd rather be in gold for those reasons. People that were in, you know, in NASDAQ since 2010, 2009 really when I started investing in gold had beaten me. But that's okay. I don't want

to put my money into that system. I love technology. I'm sitting here broadcasting to you over technology, using technology, but there's a limit to which I want that to affect my life. And I think having a real physical asset is something that is going to help uh me uh dealing not only with inflation, but dealing with whatever's coming down the pike with this new technological future. Uh and just to remind people, I spent 30 years in tech. I started off as administrator, then I did auditing and

consulting, then I did cyber security. My masters is in information assurance which is cyber security. Uh my bachelor's is a hybrid business technology degree called management of information systems. I have an associates in applied sciences which was basically Cisco networking and Unix system administration internet technologies that I got in 2002 when the internet was growing. I spent a lot of time in tech and I know tech very well and I think some of the advancements really caused me to have some concern.

So the presentation started off as what's done best. Well, it turns out only one of the stock market indices since 1971 has done best, but really since 2010, but gold's the runner up and I think gold probably is going to lead to more freedom than the other one. But if you want to simplify this this whole presentation down, why investing in the Dow, the S&P, bonds, and all those other things when gold is simply beating it? Because it maintains your purchasing power. If you're looking for the most

economically beneficial, lowest risk of these things to put your money into, it would be gold. Silver a little bit to a less extent because it's become industrialized. But if you consider the supply and demand characteristics and how we're likely eventually to get to real world shortages while all of our available stocks are being used up in all this technology by the way that uh and this this rampant increase in technology silver I think will explode past gold at some point but right now gold is the

stronger of the two. That's going to do it for today. This has been your host Rob Ke with the Freedom Report. >> [music]

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MoneyMan ·Economic Roundtable ·1 week ago
Second Bank of the United States

Second Bank of the United States

Second Bank of the United States

The Second Bank of the United States caused the Panic of 1837 through a deliberate, institution-saving policy reversal that crushed the economy it had previously inflated.Nicholas Biddle ran the Second Bank through the early 1830s and expanded credit aggressively. Member banks multiplied loans on to...

Read the full article →

W WatchMakingWebsite ·Financial News & Discussion ·2 weeks ago
The Great Monetary Disconnect — Why Can Financial Markets Boom While Ordinary People Still Struggle?

Are we creating two different economies without realising it?

Central banks influence the economy through interest rates, liquidity and monetary policy. Yet there is a growing question worth debating: what happens when financial markets respond positively to monetary policy, but the benefits take much longer to reach households, workers and small businesses?

Imagine a situation where stock markets are rising, investors are becoming more confident and borrowing conditions are improving for major corporations. At the same time, a small business is struggling to obtain a loan, a first-time buyer cannot afford a mortgage and households are still paying high interest rates on existing debts.

Both realities can exist within the same economy.

This raises a fundamental question about the modern financial system: is the transmission of monetary policy becoming increasingly unequal, and what does that mean for long-term economic stability?

1. The hidden problem with interest rate changes

When a central bank changes interest rates, financial markets often react immediately. Bond yields move, currencies adjust and investors reconsider the value of shares and other assets.

However, the transmission of those changes into the wider economy can take considerably longer.

A household with a fixed-rate mortgage may not experience a change in its monthly payments until its existing deal expires. A business might face higher borrowing costs despite a reduction in the central bank's policy rate, particularly if lenders believe its industry has become riskier.

This creates an interesting situation in which monetary policy can be restrictive for some parts of the economy while financial conditions are improving for others.

The Bank for International Settlements has also highlighted how the growing importance of market-based finance makes financial conditions more sensitive to market prices and international shocks.

Bank for International Settlements

2. What the 2026 financial data tell us

The UK provides an interesting example of how different borrowers can experience the same financial environment.

In its July 2026 Financial Stability Report, the Bank of England projected that a little over five million UK households would face higher mortgage repayments by the end of 2028. This was a conditional projection based on the interest-rate expectations and mortgage data available at the time, not a guaranteed outcome.

the UK's central bank

Its second-quarter 2026 Credit Conditions Survey also reported that lenders had slightly reduced credit availability for small and medium-sized businesses, while availability for large businesses was unchanged.

the UK's central bank

These findings raise an important issue about how we measure economic recovery.

If financial markets recover before households and smaller businesses experience better borrowing conditions, does that necessarily mean the economic recovery is incomplete?

There is another side to this argument. The Bank of England's July report also found that UK households and businesses remained resilient in aggregate and that the banking system continued supporting the real economy. Financial stability and individual financial hardship are related, but they are not identical measures.

the UK's central bank

3. Could the changing financial system make this problem bigger?

Traditional banks are no longer the only major providers of finance. Investment funds, private credit providers and other non-bank financial institutions play an increasingly important role in global capital markets.

This can diversify funding sources, but it also creates different channels through which economic shocks can spread.

The IMF's April 2026 Global Financial Stability Report highlighted vulnerabilities associated with leveraged non-bank investors, sovereign debt markets and cross-border capital flows.

IMF

Consider what might happen during a sudden international financial shock. Investors may sell risky assets, lenders may reassess creditworthiness and businesses may delay investment.

Even if central banks provide additional liquidity to stabilise financial markets, that does not automatically mean every business will receive affordable credit.

It is therefore worth examining whether the increasing role of non-bank finance changes how effectively monetary policy supports the wider economy.

4. The wider consequences for the next generation

One of the most important aspects of this discussion is its potential long-term effect on younger people and future entrepreneurs.

A person who already owns financial assets may benefit from rising share prices or property values. Someone without substantial savings may instead face higher housing costs and greater difficulty building wealth.

Similarly, an established corporation may have access to bond markets and several financing options, whereas a new business may depend on a bank loan or its owner's personal savings.

These differences are not necessarily evidence that monetary policy itself is failing. They do, however, raise questions about whether the financial system transmits economic opportunities evenly.

An effective monetary policy framework must also consider inflation, employment and financial stability. Making credit cheaper for everyone without regard to risk could encourage excessive borrowing and create new vulnerabilities.

The challenge is understanding where legitimate risk management ends and structural barriers to productive investment begin.

Questions for the community

1. Are stock markets still reliable indicators of economic health? Should we give greater weight to household disposable income, business investment and access to credit when assessing the economy?

2. Should central banks pay closer attention to who receives affordable credit? Would this improve monetary policy, or would it risk drawing central banks into decisions better left to governments and commercial lenders?

3. Is the growth of private credit and non-bank finance making the financial system more resilient or introducing new vulnerabilities? Could it help businesses that traditional banks are unwilling to finance?

4. What happens if financial markets recover but the cost of living remains high? Could a prolonged difference between asset-market performance and household finances weaken consumer demand and future economic growth?

5. How should monetary policy respond to another major supply shock? If rising energy costs push up inflation while weakening household spending, what trade-offs should policymakers consider?

Final thought

Perhaps the most important question is not simply whether central banks should raise or lower interest rates. It is whether we properly understand how those decisions travel through an increasingly complex financial system.

A strong stock market, a resilient banking system and improving economic growth can coexist with significant financial pressure on particular households or industries. Understanding those differences is essential when analysing the financial news.

I'd be particularly interested in hearing whether members think the biggest obstacle to economic recovery is the price of credit, the availability of credit or something more fundamental, such as weak productivity and investment. Which do you believe matters most, and what evidence would change your view?

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MoneyMan ·Economic Roundtable ·1 week ago
Money as Debt: The Hidden Architecture of Economic Control

Money as Debt: The Hidden Architecture of Economic Control

Money as Debt: The Hidden Architecture of Economic Control

Money as Debt: The Hidden Architecture of Economic ControlSociety is shaped by institutions—political, legal, religious, familial, and occupational. Of all these structures, none is more taken for granted, more poorly understood, and more consequential than the monetary system. Most people never ask...

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1 reply 46 Read more →
MoneyMan ·Teaching Resources ·1 week ago
Teaching Pack 05: When More Dollars Buy Less
Teaching Pack 05

When More Dollars Buy Less Understanding Purchasing Power

A bigger paycheck or savings balance can look like progress. Find out whether it buys more by comparing the numbers with the prices of everyday goods and services.

Ages 13–18 15-Minute Core Activity Worksheets, Simulator & Documentary
The Central Question

Can a Pay Rise Leave You Buying Less?

The dollar amount tells only part of the story. Purchasing power tells us what that amount can buy.

Compare two wage paths in the Purchasing Power Simulator, or use an unchanged shopping basket to test a larger paycheck on paper. Then explore what happens to savings when interest and prices grow at different rates.

Designed for homeschooling, summer learning, classroom enrichment, and library groups. Choose one activity for the short session. Historical data, documentary viewing, and assessment are optional extensions.

01

Look Beyond the Balance

Distinguish the number of dollars from what those dollars can purchase.

02

Compare Pay With Prices

Test whether income and savings keep pace with the same basket over time.

03

Check the Measure

Ask which prices, dates, and households a comparison actually represents.

Teach It Online or on Paper

Choose an activity and use the printable materials attached to this topic.

01

Prepare the Activity

Suggested level: Ages 13–18, introductory. Basic reading and division are enough for the core activity. Percentage calculations are optional. Either route works with one adult and one learner.

Time: Prepare for 5–10 minutes. Allow 15 minutes for one core route, discussion, and an exit sentence. Add 5–10 minutes for savings or assessment, 15–20 minutes for the historical calculator, or viewing and reading time followed by 15–20 minutes for the documentary worksheet.

Online route: Use student pages 1 and 3, a connected device, pencil, and the Purchasing Power Simulator. Enter the starting settings before teaching.

Paper route: Use student pages 2 and 3, pencil, and a calculator. No internet or personal financial information is needed.

Curriculum connection: Pack 03 and Money vs. Currency introduce purchasing power. Pack 04 explores income and price timing. This pack adds measurement, with Nominal Confusion as extended reading.

“

Count What It Buys

The number of dollars is one measurement. What those dollars buy is another. A bigger paycheck can buy less if prices rise faster than pay. A savings balance can grow through interest while losing purchasing power.

To compare fairly, use the same period and the same basket of goods and services. A nominal amount is the number in current dollars. A real amount adjusts for the change in the chosen price measure.

02

Predict, Compare, and Explain

0–2 minutes · Predict.
Can your pay rise while what it buys falls? Record a reason.

2–4 minutes · Introduce.
Read the explanation above and introduce one activity.

4–9 minutes · Compare.
Run A and B online, or calculate what monthly pay and an unchanged $100 can buy on paper.

9–13 minutes · Discuss.
Work through the three questions below. Oral answers are fine.

13–15 minutes · Explain.
Complete the exit sentence and revisit the prediction.

03

Same Prices. Two Wage Paths.

Use student page 1 and open the Purchasing Power Simulator. These are illustrative model inputs.

01
Set Up Run A

Choose Open Laboratory. Set Annual Income to $60,000; Cash Savings to $25,000; Annual Price Inflation to 5%; Annual Wage Growth to 2%; Savings Interest Rate to 1%; and Time Horizon to 10 years.

02
Run and Record

Select Run Purchasing Power Analysis. Record the future nominal income, real income change, cost of the $100 basket, and purchasing power of an unchanged $100. Use end-of-horizon results; set the timeline to year 10 if reading it.

03
Change One Input

For Run B, change only Annual Wage Growth to 5%. Run the analysis again and record the same results. What changed, and what stayed the same?

04
Optional Savings Check

Compare future nominal savings with their purchasing power in today’s dollars. Why do the savings results remain the same in both runs?

Model limits: Constant annual rates, no additional savings contributions or withdrawals, and no taxes or fees. The comparison illustrates a mathematical relationship; it is not a forecast.

04

The Same Basket, a Bigger Paycheck

The fictional example: One year ago, an unchanged basket of goods cost $100. Today it costs $125. Monthly pay rises from $1,000 to $1,100. We compare buying capacity; nobody has to spend the whole paycheck.

Before

Basket price: $100
Monthly pay: $1,000
How many basket-equivalents can this pay buy?

After

Basket price: $125
Monthly pay: $1,100
How many basket-equivalents can the new pay buy?

Calculate: Basket-equivalents = dollars available ÷ basket price. Fractions are allowed: 2.5 means the buying capacity of two and a half baskets. Complete the pay row on student page 2, then compare what an unchanged $100 can buy before and after.

Explain: Has pay increased in dollars? Has its buying capacity increased? Use the quantities to support your answer.

Optional savings: A $500 balance earns 5% interest and becomes $525 over the same year. No deposits or withdrawals are made. Compare the basket-equivalents it buys before and after.

Optional percentage challenge: Calculate the percentage rise in the basket price and the percentage fall in what an unchanged $100 buys. Why are they different?

Assumptions: The basket’s contents and quality stay fixed; taxes and fees are excluded. The price increase is invented and does not establish what caused inflation.

Three Questions to Work Through

Use student page 3 and support your explanation with the activity.

01
How can a larger paycheck buy less?

Separate the dollar amount from what it can purchase. Use one result from your chosen route.

02
What would pay or savings need to do to keep the same purchasing power?

Explain what must match, using the same period and comparison basket.

03
Would every household experience the same change in living costs?

Give one reason and one piece of information needed to compare two households.

Student Exit Sentence
A larger dollar amount does not necessarily mean … To find out whether I can buy more, I need to compare …
05

Check Your Understanding

A. In a new example, the same basket rises from $100 to $110 and pay rises from $1,000 to $1,100. Compare how many baskets each paycheck buys.

B. Prices rose 5% last year and rise 2% this year. Are prices now falling? Explain. Optional: calculate the cost of an initially $100 basket after both years.

06

Compare the Measures

Use student page 4 and the Inflation Calculator. Set Starting Amount to $100, From to 2001, and To to 2024.

Run the calculation for CPI-U, AIER Everyday Price Index, and LISEP True Living Cost. Record each equivalent 2024 amount, cumulative price change, and the date checked.

Read the notes on baskets and populations. This calculator uses January observations for CPI-U and EPI but annual estimates for TLC. Discuss how those differences affect the comparison and which measure may be relevant to a particular household.

Then select M2 Monetary Inflation. Explain why retaining the same proportional share of a money stock is different from buying the same basket of goods. M2 growth is not itself a consumer price inflation rate.

Arithmetic check: For an equivalent amount E, the cumulative price rise is (E ÷ 100 − 1) × 100%. The buying power of an unchanged $100, in starting-year dollars, is 10,000 ÷ E. Apply this check to the price measures.

07

Watch, Read, and Check a Claim

Watch: Hidden Secrets of Money, Episode 1: Money vs. Currency. Preview it before teaching; assign the full film or a checked excerpt. Allow viewing time separately.

Read: In the second post of Nominal Confusion, read What Is Nominal Confusion? and The Real Return Calculation. Allow reading time, then 15–20 minutes for student page 5.

1. Locate: Paraphrase a film claim about storing value or purchasing power. Record actual start and end timestamps. Is it a definition, a historical claim, or a prediction?

2. Test: Which dated prices, wages, or other records could support or challenge the claim? Why can a classroom model alone not establish a historical result?

3. Calculate: A savings balance rises 8% while a comparison basket rises 6%. Calculate (1.08 ÷ 1.06 − 1) × 100% and explain the result.

4. Reconsider: What would you now explain differently about a larger paycheck or balance? Name a question you still want to investigate.

08

Check the Buying Power

Paper route: Monthly pay buys 10 baskets before and 8.8 after. The new pay is worth $880 in starting-year dollars, a 12% real decline despite a 10% nominal rise. An unchanged $100 buys 1 basket before and 0.8 after.

Savings: $500 buys 5 baskets before; $525 buys 4.2 after. The new balance has $420 of starting-year purchasing power, a 16% real decline. The basket price rises 25%, while the buying power of unchanged cash falls 20%.

Simulator, Run A: Independently calculated year-10 income is $73,139.67, worth $44,901.41 in starting-year dollars: a 25.16% real decline.

Simulator, Run B: Income is $97,733.68, worth $60,000 in starting-year dollars: no real change. In both runs, the original $100 basket costs $162.89, and unchanged $100 has $61.39 of starting-year buying power.

Simulator savings: Both runs produce $27,615.55 nominal savings, worth $16,953.55 in starting-year dollars. The teacher PDF gives the formulas. These are calculated expectations for the specified settings; allow for interface rounding.

Discussion: Compare growth in dollars with prices over the same period. Equal growth preserves buying power in the simplified model. Household budgets and price experiences differ; a national index is an average.

Assessment: A: both paychecks buy 10 baskets. B: prices are still rising, just more slowly; this is disinflation. The two-year basket costs $107.10. The documentary calculation gives about 1.89% real growth.

Teaching precision: The exercises show how to adjust a dollar amount for prices. They do not establish a cause of inflation, a historical conclusion, or a forecast. The film and curriculum use a particular distinction between money and currency; standard economics also commonly includes bank deposits within money. Define terms before evaluating claims.

09

Download the Student and Teacher PDFs

The two PDFs attached to this topic are ready to print. Keep the answer guide separate from the learner’s pages.

Student Worksheets · 5 Pages

Online comparison, paper activity, discussion and assessment, historical calculator investigation, and a documentary worksheet.

Filename:
MLMF-Teaching-Pack-05-Student-Worksheets.pdf

Teacher Guide & Answers · 6 Pages

Preparation, a 15-minute plan, read-aloud explanation, worked answers, assessment guidance, adaptations, and sources.

Filename:
MLMF-Teaching-Pack-05-Teacher-Guide.pdf

Print only what you need: Student pages 1 and 3 for the online core; pages 2 and 3 for the paper core. Pages 4–5 and the optional questions are extensions.

10

Continue the Learning

Purchasing Power Simulator · Inflation Calculator

Money vs. Currency · Teaching Pack 04 · Nominal Confusion

Hidden Secrets of Money, Episode 1 connects the activity to the documentary curriculum.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI questions and answers explains what the CPI covers and why an average measure can differ from a particular household’s experience.

Return to Teaching Resources for the full collection. Prepared September 28, 2026.

1 reply 58 Read more →
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rockfleece ·Extended Studies ·2 weeks ago
The Greatest Fraud In Human History | Prof. Richard Werner

Interview with Richard Werner

On central banking, money creation, why high economic growth is possible, and why it is being suppressed

Host: Richard, good to meet you.

Richard Werner: Great to meet you.

Host: We’ve got limited time, so let’s hit the big points. Help me understand something. I’m not the smartest guy in the world, but I know enough. We seem to have the best technology we’ve ever had and the smartest people we’ve ever had. Yet our economy appears unable to grow. We’re in a cost-of-living crisis. None of our public services seem to work anymore. Are we getting something fundamentally wrong, or is there a group of people who know how to play this game of money better than everyone else?

Richard Werner: Absolutely. You’ve put it quite well — it is a contradiction. We have more knowledge available than ever before and amazing technology. Progress in recent decades has clearly been significant. So why is our economy performing so badly, and why are ordinary people and the middle class not doing very well?

The short answer is: this is what the controllers — I call them the central planners — want to achieve. What you get is what they want us to get. All the control levers are in the hands of a small number of people, and they could switch to quite a different scenario.

In mainstream economics, one of the key protagonists of the 20th century was Paul Samuelson. He obscured the power of banks and money creation. Individual banks can create money, but he promoted the fractional-reserve theory, which is at best a half-truth. It recognises money creation in the system but makes it very diffuse — each bank is just an intermediary. His textbook, first published in 1947 and still going strong, has been promoting this story for decades. He’s a classic case of mainstream economics leading people to the wrong information.

But in his early years he wrote a paper they don’t like to quote anymore, called “Revealed Preference.” I agree with him on this one point. He argued that since we assume people are rational actors who know what they’re doing most of the time, we should expect that their intentions are revealed in their actions. Don’t listen to what they say — they can tell you all sorts of stories. Just watch what they’re doing. That is what they really want.

That’s the principle I’ve been using to analyse central bankers and the central planners in general. They spin quite a yarn and have all sorts of misleading stories that can send you down the wrong path. Just watch what they’re doing. That is the intention.

It is absolutely possible — and I really think it is criminal that we’re not getting it — to have sustainable, high, double-digit economic growth without inflation, without crises, and even arranged so that it is fairly equitable. Everyone, or most people who want to work hard, gets a chance to do really well. An economy of abundance. High growth. Young people get responsibility early, they get opportunities, they can start companies. Companies expand, the economy grows, there’s constant need for new goods and services. That is possible.

Every country can deliver 10% economic growth every year, year after year. We don’t need cycles. We don’t need crises. We don’t need 1–2% growth or zero growth, or countries like Germany shrinking for years. All of that is totally unnecessary. So why aren’t we getting it?

Host: When you say “they” — the controllers, the central planners — are we talking about the central banks? Are we talking about the government? Because they seem too incompetent. I believe they’re incompetent. Or is it higher up? Is it the asset managers around the world? The people who move the money around the world?

Richard Werner: I’ve focused in my work quite a lot on the central bankers because they have the most impact on the monetary mechanism, the financial system, the banking system, and the whole flow of finance. For much of the analysis that’s almost sufficient. But you do hit the point where you wonder why on earth they are doing this.

Take Japan. They created a 20-year recession. And they actually revealed why they were doing it. That’s in my book Princes of the Yen. I quote them — the governor, the deputy governor of the central bank, and these people before they got into leading positions — on the record in the Nikkei and other publications. They said things like: “We think it’s better for the economy to have a structural change… structural transformation… because we want to change the economy.”

As the World Bank once put it in a report: banking crises are a window of opportunity. An opportunity to change the ownership structure. That’s what they did with the Asian crisis. Asian countries were doing really well, and foreigners had no share in that — whether Japan for decades, or Korea, or Southeast Asian economies like Thailand. Foreigners didn’t really own much, and the banks were locally owned. The Asian crisis changed that. The Japanese crisis changed that. That’s how you crack open these countries.

They were saying: we want to change the structure, change the ownership structure. In the Japanese case it was because the post-war Japanese success was due to a fairly straightforward implementation of what is possible. The Japanese had researched quite well what can be achieved. They realised: we can have high growth — 15% growth for decades. It’s actually possible. Let’s do it.

In 1960 a new prime minister announced they were going to double national income in the next ten years. There was a storm of opposition: “That’s nonsense, impossible, cannot be done.” All the economists were outraged. Well, they did it in four and a half years — way ahead of schedule. Of course it can be done. And they kept doing it.

Then it turned out that Japan was considered too successful by very powerful players. That’s where we have to push a little bit behind the central bankers. The central bankers in most countries turn out to be, essentially, traitors to their countries. When push comes to shove, they work for other interests that operate on a bigger, international, globalist scale.

Host: So there is a globalist network with an agenda?

Richard Werner: Yes. There is a globalist network that has an agenda. And this agenda is not actually good for most people — for ordinary people and for most countries. That’s why they need traitors who help them.

Host: Who are these people and what do they want? Are they just enriching themselves? Are they just stealing everything?

Richard Werner: I think it’s about control. And in a way it is embedded in the history of banking and central banking. We don’t really have to leave that path very much to find answers.

Throughout history, those who first understood the tricks used by banks — and it was kept a secret for centuries how banking works — could take advantage. And they did take massive advantage. That made them very powerful, to the extent that kings and princes and monarchs became indebted to them. And that always means you can extract more than just money. Money is best lent to the sovereign because they can tax the people to pay.

The introduction of central banks always goes hand-in-glove with the introduction of new taxes — income tax and so on. When the Fed was created, they created the federal income tax, which didn’t exist before. Somebody’s got to pay the interest on that national debt, which is going to pile up the moment you tell the government: “We’re going to create money for you, and you’ve got to borrow the money at interest.”

So you have people who understand the system, and essentially a small number of dynasties that did really well over the centuries, while for centuries the mechanics remained very little known.

There’s proof of this in the very fact that it took until 2014 for the first empirical test to be done — I did this — on how banks actually work. It was still controversial. The claim that banks create money when they lend was considered a conspiracy theory. Many textbooks wouldn’t even consider it. Famous economists said, “That’s just some monetary nutcases, cranks.” Even Keynes said things along those lines.

The currently still dominant theory is the financial intermediation theory: that banks just gather deposits and those very deposits are then lent out. That is not what happens. But that’s what the textbooks assume. And that false narrative has been around until the 21st century.

One very important building block in fooling people about this, going back something like 800 years, was the invention of double-entry accounting. It was created by and for the bankers. It’s a very clever way to hide money creation and always point out: “Hang on, there’s nothing happening here. Look, the accounts always balance — assets and liabilities.” And this worked so well that mainstream economists, until the 21st century, believed there was nothing to see — banks don’t create money.

Of course, those who knew this and took advantage became very powerful, asking for privileges, legal changes, more rights from the monarchs and from governments. You can see how they moved into a position of very strong power. First it’s about money, but once you have all the money in the world, the next step is power.

On a global scale we see this principle: they want power. The ultimate power is to concentrate power over the whole world in a small number of hands. That seems to be the game they’re playing — some kind of world centralised government. The globalists have essentially been saying that. It’s not a secret. They say we need a globalised world so there should be no national obstacles to our global power. That’s really what it means when you have all the globalist demands implemented.

And of course they need people motivated to work with them and for them. Mainstream economics is one way to train people who don’t really see the full picture.

Host: Is that Keynesian nonsense?

Richard Werner: For example, yes — Keynesian, and all these schools of thought. They love to argue and quibble with each other, but they’re all very similar. They’re all equilibrium economics.

Whether you start with classical economics — David Ricardo was one of the great propagandists. He basically created modern economics by saying: let’s not look at the facts when we can have great theories that come to the conclusions we want. He introduced the so-called deductive methodology: start with axioms and assumptions, build a theoretical mathematical model, and the whole thing is very logically consistent. Logic appeals. Men love logic. So we’re easily influenced: “Oh, that’s pretty logical — got to be true.”

That’s a big misunderstanding, because logic is not truth. Just because something is logical doesn’t mean it’s true. It could be a description of reality — but whether it is, is a simple empirical question. You still need to check the data and the facts. But they never do.

The main trick in this Ricardo approach, which has dominated the last 200 years of economics, is that you present the whole thing in reverse order. You start with your preferred conclusion. You work backwards: what sort of model gives you that conclusion? Then what assumptions do we need to present that model? Then you present it in reverse order: “Let’s just for the sake of argument have these assumptions… oh, we get this mathematical model… oh, that’s quite logically consistent… and here’s the conclusion. Who would have thought?” Of course that’s what the whole thing was aimed at. That’s charlatanism.

Since Ricardo we’ve been on that track. Within this equilibrium approach, equilibrium is the foundational basis that was chosen because there’s no dominant market player and equilibrium is always the markets. You assume demand equals supply. Then you have some quibbles — classical, Keynesian, neoclassical, post-Keynesian, monetarist, Wicksellian — all sorts. But they’re all equilibrium thinkers. And there’s never been any evidence of any equilibrium whatsoever. The whole thing is a bunch of baloney. They get away with it because it’s very logical and because people don’t realise that just because something is logical does not mean it’s true. Truth is empirical and fact-based.

We just need the approach that’s very successful in the natural sciences: look at the facts, observation, data — usually from the past, because we don’t have data on the future. History. Then build explanations based on that data. That’s not how economics does it. But if you did that — and I’ve been doing it my entire career — it works very well. Then you can actually see what’s going on, and you can have predictions about what’s going to happen.

There is a global network of powerful people, families, dynasties who have the ability to control large parts of the world — who’s in power, who isn’t — to maintain their position as the wealthy people in the background. The big grand conspiracy is not really a conspiracy. It’s true.

In my analysis I focus on central banks. You can even say what you just said just by going to the level of central banks, because they already have so much power, and it’s visible and not disputed. You can prove it and show it.

Host: But are they just useful idiots? Are they pawns of these people?

Richard Werner: In the Japanese case I was wondering: why on earth are they doing this? They could just be convinced by the argument that the Japanese economic system is not good for Japan. Well, it delivered 15% growth for decades. It made you double national income every four and a half years at 15% growth. And it can be done. They’ve proven it can be done.

Then Korea, Taiwan, Singapore copied it. And in 1978 China copied it. Deng Xiaoping came to power. The first thing he did was go to Japan with 300 of his top people. He told the Japanese: “Okay guys, we’ve done a lot of ideology — the deductive approach, the Ricardo approach, the Mao red book. We’re all tired of that. We’re throwing out ideology. We just want to do pragmatic stuff that works. I’ve come here as a student. Teach me how I can have double-digit growth.” And they told him. And that’s what China did.

Of course the key was the monetary system. They asked him: “How many banks do you have?” “One bank — central planning.” Well, the central planners love it — power maximisation, control — but it doesn’t really work well. It works for the controllers, but everyone else is unhappy. And they get unhappier.

Host: And we end up where we are now, where it feels like we’re on the fringe of civil war. Populism’s on the rise. There’s a massive amount of discontent. Crime is up. Trust is down. Nothing works in the country anymore. Inflation is rampant. Everything feels like it’s breaking around us.

Richard Werner: Exactly. And of course the UK is a great example, because in the UK we are close to central planning. There aren’t many banks — proper banks that do traditional banking. We’re talking about five big banks, and they don’t even do traditional banking anymore. Once you get so big and your balance sheet is more than £2,000 billion, and you’ve got five banks of that size basically controlling the financial system — accounting for more than 80% of deposits — then the problem is the following.

We confirmed this in research on the US, where there are banks of all sizes and there’s still, fortunately, a large number of banks (although it’s going down there as well — they consolidated quite a bit). What we found analysing those 5,000 banks of different sizes is a very simple principle. It makes common sense, but the finance literature had sort of disputed it. Namely: it’s a rule in banking that we confirmed — big banks want to do big deals with big customers. They need to. Who lends to small firms? It’s small banks. And that’s it.

When you consolidate the banking system like in the UK, nobody lends to small firms. Now, why does it matter? “Oh, they’re just small firms.” Well, no. It’s the middle class. There’s more to it.

In the UK we’ve had for a century now this “productivity puzzle.” Every few years it comes up again — some commission or parliamentary committee discussing why productivity is so low. UK productivity has been low compared to Germany for a century. Why is that?

It’s very simple. Productivity is simply: we look at the whole country, the output produced — GDP is a measure — per person working. You mustn’t use the total workforce but those people who actually work. So if you’ve got unemployment, you can’t count those, because you want the productivity of the people who are actually working. They produce the GDP. You calculate that ratio. That’s your productivity. It’s been quite low in the UK.

To find out why that is, you only have to look at who is the main employer of those people — where do they work? That’s true for the UK, for Germany, for Japan, for the US: the vast majority of people work for small firms. Small and medium-sized companies employ two-thirds usually of employment. In the UK roughly 65%. In Germany and Japan it used to be actually higher — between 70 and 80%. Anyway, the majority works for small firms.

Now, how can their productivity be higher? German small-firm productivity in the past (I’m talking about before the current disaster of intentional destruction and de-industrialisation in Germany) was quite high, because whenever new technology came up, small firms would realise it. They go to the fairs in their industry and so on. They realise: these are new trends, there’s a new technology that affects our industry, our section, our market niche. We’ve got to get it. It means we’ve got to spend some money. We’ve got to master that technology and apply it. Where do we get the money from? We go to our local bank.

That’s the system in Germany. The numbers have also been declining, but there are still around 1,200 small local banks — cooperative banks mostly, some savings banks. You go to your local bank and you explain. They know you already, because they only lend locally. They will not lend outside the local area. So they know all the firms there. “Oh yeah, so you guys want this new technology. Okay, let’s look at the plans.” And within maybe two days they would have the money and they can buy the technology and implement it.

In the UK, forget it. They find out: okay, there’s this new technology, we’ve got to get it. Ah, it’s too expensive. We can’t do it. Let’s find a workaround. But they can’t really get the funding. That’s the problem. And so productivity stays low. Why is that? Because the banks are large, and large banks only do large customers, large business. They don’t want to deal with small firms. That’s all it is.

The consolidation of the UK banking system took place before the First World War, and the problem has therefore been known. Every few years we have these studies — not just on productivity, but also on the banking sector. They always come to the same conclusion: wow, it’s such a concentrated banking sector. The big five dominate banking. They don’t lend to small firms, and they give only short-term loans — one-year, two-year loans. And so that’s the problem.

There’s a great report, the Colwyn Report, which says that the problem is the concentrated banking system. The big five dominate. They don’t lend to small firms. That report was published in 1918 — more than a century ago. The problem had been identified. But what has been done about it? Nothing, of course, until this day. Because really the goal is concentration, and they don’t care about the middle class. The fact that most people work for small firms, and if you want a healthy, wealthy economy where people are doing well, you need many small banks.

But in this country there are strong interests in the City of London against this. If you want to set up a new bank for the super-rich and you make your business case that the super-rich need a special bank, oh, you get the banking licence in record time. But try to set up a local community bank — that’s definitely not going to be easy, to put it mildly.

Host: So when you look at the political layer — Germany or wherever — you make the assumption a politician wants to be successful. They want to be respected. They want to be seen as somebody who was good for the country. A lot of our problems are down to the economy. Not everything — there’s the immigration question at the moment — but a lot of things come down to the economy. And you say it’s easy to fix. How can they be unable to fix it? Are they also just incompetent, or are they also useful idiots? We talk about people being captured. Does the tap on the shoulder happen? “No, this is how it really works.”

Trump was meant to be this anti-establishment, drain-the-swamp, no-foreign-wars guy. Something’s happened over the last year. He’s got involved in a foreign war in Iran, which to everybody on the outside looks like a dumb move. To those who look at this stuff: “Oh no, this is a required war because we require this war to be able to keep funding the military-industrial complex,” and so on. Are we basically just being shown: this is how it is now?

Richard Werner: In many ways, yes. Because in the UK, of course, it’s a bit more entrenched even than in the US, just historically.

Look at the formal legal structure of the UK. It’s a very strange one. There’s no constitution. Oh, there is a constitution — it’s just not written down. Well, okay. And it’s not all relevant anymore. But why is it not written down? There’s a good reason. This is why it will never be written down. Because when you then actually look at who has power, you see that there is a very strange entity called the City of London Corporation. Which is a sovereign state that the King is not allowed to enter without permission. Therefore it’s not directly part of his sovereign territory. But the sovereign state has representation in Parliament — unelected. Unelected representation is the Remembrancer, who is allowed to participate in any debate and be there in any proceedings in order to make sure that nothing happens against the interest of the City of London. So it’s a privileged entity that has clear powers that are above ordinary people and the rest of the entire nation.

What happens in the City of London? That’s where the banks have been, and that’s where for most of its history the privately owned Bank of England was established, and the banking powers got established. And of course their voting in the City of London is not democratic either, because it’s not people who vote — it’s companies who vote by the number of employees. But it doesn’t mean the employees get to vote. No, it’s the bosses. That’s how the City of London does its voting, which is not democratic. So actually at the heart of the UK there is a non-democracy.

These are just some examples of institutional features. And then it shouldn’t be surprising that, unfortunately, yes, it’s the wrong incentive structure, and we don’t seem to get results. But also at the same time, of course, media is very important. And that’s where your role comes in. You’re doing a great job with the independent guys.

Host: I’d like my favourite kind of person listening to this show to be just a normal person trying to get by in life, figure it out, who is kind of waking up to the idea that the government isn’t working for them. One thing I keep tweeting regularly at the moment is: stop voting for poor. Stop getting involved in these bitter fights where you keep this machine running that’s making you poor. For a lot of people out there — hardworking people getting up in the morning, going to work, driving a lorry, running their small business, doing everything they can — yet life is getting harder. They can afford less. They get to the end of the month with no money left. How are they meant to understand how this is happening around them? What is actually being done to them?

Richard Werner: Basically, I think they sense that it could be better. And they’re absolutely right. Everyone who thinks, “Hang on, this is not really the best — it could be much better,” is correct. And I can easily demonstrate that we can have in the UK 10% growth. Give me the job at the Bank of England. The Bank of England could engineer 10–12% growth for two decades. But to do that you need to implement policies that some very influential people don’t like.

The most important thing is to establish many small local banks. Because it immediately takes some of their centralised power — the central-planning power — and decentralises it and spreads out the decision-making power.

That’s what Deng Xiaoping was told by the Japanese when he asked them: “Tell me the secret of high growth.” And they said: “What? You’ve only got one bank for a billion people. How about you create 5,000 banks, and each bank has 30 branches, and each branch has 35 loan officers. Then you will have more than 5 million loan officers that each year will receive hundreds of millions of loan applications from small firms — because these are small banks, they need to lend to small firms — and they will lend to small firms. Of course you select the best. That makes sense. There has to be selection. But the decision will be local. And now you’ve totally decentralised.”

So you’ve moved from a centralised system — essentially the Soviet central-planning system that the UK is very close to, really, with five banks and the Bank of England — that’s pretty centralised — and China with one bank. Then they switched from the Soviet system to the highly successful decentralised system, which is what all the high-growth economies have done.

When Britain was successful, it had thousands of banks — cooperatives, savings banks, local banks, credit unions that were proper banks (not what they are now — they’re not allowed to lend properly to small firms). Many types of provincial banks and so on. We’re talking now about the 19th century, when growth was double digits and there were literally thousands of banks.

Host: But hold on — why would they not want small businesses to be successful?

Richard Werner: It’s the power. It’s the power dimension. As we said earlier: first these guys are about the money, but once they have all the money, what do they want next? Human nature being what it is, never satisfied — they want power next. And that’s what it’s about.

If you have this decentralised system, you are giving local people power and you are empowering families and local small businesses, family businesses. And that’s what they don’t like. They want to centralise everything, which is ultimately evil. And human nature being what it is, once you get so powerful — as Lord Acton quite astutely stated, and he wasn’t trying to be dramatic or overstating it — power corrupts. Because power gives people the ability to do stuff and get away with it. And unfortunately it’s just an empirical observation: not many people can handle power. So they will start to abuse the power. And that’s the reality everywhere — not just in developing countries — everywhere in Europe, in the UK, Germany. It’s everywhere. Once you have absolute power, the corruption will be absolute. And the idea will be: you get these temporary dictators, whether you see them or not, and very often you don’t see them because they want to stay in the background.

This is really what it’s about. But if people are informed about this, they can demand more. And we should demand from our politicians — local politicians, national politicians — we should demand high growth and prosperity, because it’s possible. And it’s actually a whole bunch of BS when they tell us: “Oh, austerity, scarcity, belt-tightening.” It’s complete nonsense. We don’t need any of that.

Even the story they told us since the early 1970s — “limits to growth” — even that was BS. Because they mixed up the concepts on purpose. They say: “Oh, well, there’s physical limits to growth, surely.” Hang on — so you’re talking about physics, right? Physical limits, physical finite things in physics. Okay. Well, if you want to talk physics, you will find out there is no growth in physics, because energy can be transformed but you can’t create energy. There’s no growth.

So when we talk about growth, you are always talking about economic growth. Now, when you talk about economic growth, what is economic growth? What is GDP, national income? What is it? It’s a statistical concept that is made up. It had a purpose originally — the guys who were about to set up the Bank of England wanted to know how much they could extract in interest and taxes from this country, and that’s what national-income accounting was supposed to do. A broader use is that it’s a measure of economic strength and prosperity. It has flaws, but it’s a rough-and-ready measure of economic strength and prosperity. That’s what GDP, national income, is. But it’s a statistical fiction. And that’s why the statistical fiction can’t hurt the environment. So growth is not the enemy of the environment. That’s the first point. That’s why we don’t have to limit growth because that will save the planet. That’s nonsense. There’s no link. These are different dimensions. One is a statistical fiction we’ve made up, and the other is the environment — physical reality.

And secondly: what about limits to growth? Well, there aren’t any limits, because growth is driven by productivity. Productivity is driven by technology. Technology is invented by humans. And the ultimate limit is human ingenuity. And nobody’s found a limit to that one.

Host: Well, I think they’re finding ways to limit it.

Richard Werner: Well, of course — artificially they’re suppressing the economic growth that’s delivered. And they’re the central planners. It’s very simple. What drives growth in very concrete terms? Economic growth is simply a direct proportional function of bank credit creation for productive business investment. In other words: bank loans — the quantity of bank loans to productive businesses. And when you lend to small firms, that’s mostly productive. That’s a simple way of doing it.

Therefore, if you set up 5,000 small local banks, as Deng Xiaoping did, then you will get a lot of investment in productive things and you will get implementation of technology on a large scale. But decentralised. You get high growth — 15% growth for decades, four decades as it happened — lifting more people out of poverty than anywhere else before. That can be done in any country. Other countries have demonstrated it. Britain can do this. We can have this high economic growth.

Host: But how do we get from where we are now to that? Because I look at them — Starmer was a disaster. The Conservatives before them were a disaster. You look at Andy Burnham now even today saying national defence will not come at the expense of social security. It appears that Reeves will be raising taxes in the next budget — maybe capital gains or exit taxes. It feels like they’re just tightening and tightening around us. And I look at them and I’m like: are these useful idiots? Are they incompetent? Do they know what can be done, but they get near power and power doesn’t allow them to do it? Do we just need a revolution on the streets? Do we need the public to really understand that it is this machinery that is destroying the prosperity and the future of our children, our country? What do we do?

Richard Werner: First, people need to understand that we can have high growth. We just need many small banks lending to small businesses. When you’ve got a lot of bank credit for productive business investment, you get high growth. If we had 10% growth in this bank credit, we would rev up economic growth — 5, 6, 7%, pushing it towards 10% is possible.

Why is this not happening? Because often, yes, when politicians say, “Hang on, actually it’s a good idea — let’s set up a local bank in this regional area, this local area,” basically it’s a no-brainer, because the costs are very limited. You just need £20 million in capital, and then after three or four years this £20 million will have injected a multiple — you get maybe £400–500 million, and with a bit of growth and expansion of the bank you soon have a billion in loans from this £20 million in capital. And it becomes a flywheel. And of course it’s profitable if you do it well.

There’s never been a banking crisis because people say, “Oh, you set up banks — that’s risky.” Hang on. When banks lend for productive business investment, you get growth, no inflation, and no crisis. It’s when banks lend for consumption that you get consumer-price inflation. And when banks lend for asset purchases — including real estate, financial assets — and nowadays these five big banks mostly lend to private-equity funds and hedge funds because they want to do such big deals and that’s the only thing they found because they’re so big — then you get asset inflation and banking crises. And that’s why we’ve had this boom-bust cycle in the UK the whole time for the last century.

It is very simple. People don’t understand that we can have high growth by having many small banks lending to small firms, pushing out productive business investment. But next: politicians — some politicians — do understand this. And I’ve had quite a few politicians actually support me in the past when I worked on setting up the Hampshire Community Bank. We had a lot of opposition. In the end the biggest shareholder, when we were just ready — everything was ready, we’d gone through the applicant journey with the Bank of England (they moved the goalposts many times, but we managed to get through) and we were about to hand in the application — our main shareholder decided to pull out. Because ultimately at that stage there was small money. They hadn’t even put in their full £5 million they’d pledged, and they pulled out. But of course once the bank would have launched it would have been quite a different story.

People need to understand that it can be done. And then we need to support those politicians who are gaining understanding. There’s one politician who was on my radar quite early on because she criticised the Bank of England when she was just a member of Parliament.

Host: Liz Truss.

Richard Werner: Indeed. And she’s been there three times. And she got it. I thought: oh, here’s a lady who seems to know a bit, because she understands the important role of the central bank, and she understood that, hang on, the central bank is not really accountable for what it’s doing, and we’re not really asking the central bank to do very much, and we need to have higher standards, and we can’t be bullied by the central bank.

Then she became prime minister, which wasn’t really planned — I think Rishi Sunak was supposed to be the prime minister immediately. So then she was there as prime minister, and immediately it looked like the Bank of England staged a coup. And that proved her entire point. Entirely. And she’s been vindicated now.

You also see of course how the media are essentially complicit — not just complicit, actively colluding in this — because they gave her such a bad write-up, calling her names, “oh she’s stupid.” Come on — she’s been at Oxford. She’s a smart lady. In fact, to me she was one of the smartest politicians because she understood this power mechanism. I think she’s the greatest prime minister we basically didn’t have. What was it — 50, 56 days or something? So I consider we didn’t really get to have her as a prime minister, because she saw the problem. She understood the problem of debt. She understood productivity. She understood the Bank of England. She understood it all. She understood incentives. And she wanted to move quick and get things done. And they screwed it up.

What the Bank of England did was very simple. They just sold government bonds. You create a mini-crisis in the bond market. Yields go up. And the media then, very importantly, write these stories. And of course the central banks love to essentially nurture and have their journalists over the years that get invited and get special treatment. The Bank of England doesn’t ever get a critical write-up, even when they jointly caused the 2008 crisis, or the inflation of 2021–22 from central-bank money creation out of control. No negative write-up on the Bank of England at all. So the control over the journalists is quite good, quite subtle, and works very well. And that’s the other problem. That’s where independent journalism comes in.

Host: Yeah, they haven’t got me yet. I haven’t had that tap on the shoulder. But oh man — this is so sad, but actually what an opportunity we have in a country if we can just get everybody to understand that we can have a different way. As you said, we can have growth. We can really have prosperity, abundance. We can literally have abundance. We can reduce the welfare state. We could shore up our defences. We could protect our border. We could do all of this. But we just have to rein in — or get rid of — the central bank.

I asked that question of Liz when she was sat here for the first time. I said: should we just get rid of the Bank of England? She said: “That’s an interesting question.”

Richard Werner: We don’t need central banks. The UK — Scotland in particular — but also the US: these are examples of very strong economies over decades without a central bank. The Federal Reserve is quite a young central bank. And so it’s absolutely possible. Mostly what they do is they suppress growth.

What they talk about and what they show us as their main policy tool is interest rates. And that’s basically a decoy. I’ve analysed this. If you look up my work — “Reconsidering Monetary Policy,” for example, is the name of a paper which is open access — interest rates, short rates, are pretty much influenced by central banks, but they follow economic growth. In the long run they just always follow growth.

As Dame Kate Barker, who used to be on the MPC at the Bank of England, said at a conference on stage: “When I think about my time at the Monetary Policy Committee, it’s really been a bit of a waste of time.” Why? And of course if you look at the data that’s obvious, because rates actually follow growth and they’re positively correlated — which is the opposite of what economic theory tells you, the mainstream propaganda. They say lower rates lead to higher growth, higher rates lead to lower growth. The truth is the opposite: higher growth leads to higher rates; lower growth leads to lower rates. And that’s it.

So interest rates aren’t really the tool — the main tool they use. They use the quantity of credit, and its disaggregation. But they don’t want to talk about it, because they don’t want people to catch up on how important this is and then start setting up small local banks.

Host: Were the Austrians correct?

Richard Werner: The Austrians are correct in their point that they recognise bank credit creation quite explicitly, and that’s great. And also quite a lot of Austrians are very critical of central banks because they’re generally critical of central planning. And so I have the same views on those points. They do have some other points where I diverge. For example, they say we shouldn’t do statistical econometric analysis on data. Why not? Obviously we should look at data and the facts. They were saying it can be easily manipulated. But it doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t do any data analysis — just make it transparent.

There’s some very good approaches, like Professor David Hendry’s approach at Oxford — the Hendry approach — where you can’t manipulate the data. You first run a regression with all the possible explanatory variables, and your enemies’ variables, you put them also in — all sorts, whatever. Put them all in. Call it a big general model. And then you run it. And then you simplify with a very transparent procedure by dropping the most insignificant variable only one, because in statistics if you drop one everything else will start to change. But you drop the one that’s totally insignificant. Then run it again, and then again drop the one that’s most insignificant, and run it again, and keep doing that until you get the significant data. And that is letting the data speak. And that’s how I’ve done it in my work. And it’s bank credit, inevitably, always. And that explains economic growth. It explains all these things — banking crises, inflation. Credit creation explains it. But we’re not supposed to talk about it. Textbook economics doesn’t even acknowledge that banks create money.

But if people want to look it up, there’s the paper: “Can Banks Individually Create Money Out of Nothing?” That’s one. And the other one is “Lost Century in Economics.” These are two papers of mine, also open source, that can be accessed and read.

Host: It’s quite interesting because we are at this time now where people are just, I think, despairing about what is going on in this country and in other countries as well. Canada, Australia, America. Germany is pretty bad. Your one great market — your car market — is collapsing, it feels like, under attack.

Richard Werner: Yeah. The government has essentially killed the golden goose — the goose laying the golden eggs. Shooting down the automobile industry with all the subcontractors and all the small firms. This is a huge supply chain.

Host: Will AfD fix this? What have AfD said about central banks or banking?

Richard Werner: They’ve sensibly said that they want to exit the euro, which would make perfect sense, because that means you’re not in charge of your monetary policy — they have no monetary policy. And of course it was complete nonsense to abolish the European currency, the Deutsche Mark, and introduce a foreign currency called the euro and sell it as the European currency. That’s been a big failure. So that’s sensible if they do it.

Also they said they would like to exit the EU, which will also be sensible. The EU is a dictatorship. It’s modelled on the Soviet Union. They have a parliament — that’s their claim: “Oh, we’re a democracy, there’s a European Parliament.” Nobody votes. Nobody knows. I couldn’t name one European politician right now.

But whether you vote for them or not, these MEPs are highly paid, overpaid, and they have no power. Normally a politician is supposed to be a lawmaker. In the British Parliament in Westminster, yes, they’re lawmakers. They can make laws. But not in the European Parliament. You see, the Soviet Union claimed to be a democracy, and their claim was: we have a parliament. But it was a rubber-stamp parliament where the members of parliament had no power to write laws. Where did the laws come from? From the unelected Politburo — the centre of power. The Communist Party had the power.

Now that’s exactly what they modelled the European Union on, because the members of parliament have no power to propose any laws. All the laws come from the unelected political body called the European Commission. That’s the dictatorship. And so formally it is the Soviet Union revived, sadly. So getting out of that one will also definitely help, because they keep turning out these ridiculous laws which supersede national law at the moment. This is crazy. And that’s just what these commissars at the Commission decide.

I’ve just written a new report on my Substack (rwer.substack.com) on the latest centralisation plans. They’re literally moving towards capital controls.

Host: Is this the Christine Lagarde plan?

Richard Werner: Yes. It’s a combination, of course. The ECB is involved, but it’s also the commissars in Brussels. You have to understand: they want our deposits. Exactly. And they’ve said it. They want our savings. And of course the UK is going to — it almost feels like the UK never left the EU, because all the crazy EU rules somehow the UK also wants to adopt.

One restriction coming into place in January next year is that banks from outside — this also affects British banks — banks from outside the EU will not be able to offer deposit accounts if they don’t have an EU licence, a local licence, and they have to be authorised. So that’s quite shocking, because it’s the first step towards capital controls.

Host: Is this why they’re so scared of Marine Le Pen, the AfD, Rupert Lowe, the guy with the crazy hair in Holland? Are they scared of all the Romanian parties? They’re basically scared of all the right-wing parties because they tend to be more conservative and conservatives tend to have a focus on more sovereign ideas, sovereign rules, but pro-business. It’s much easier to have your left-wing Marxists in power to maintain this, and that’s why they call everybody who disagrees with them a communist. Is this why they’ve been flooding Europe with immigrants — to maintain this?

Richard Werner: Yes. And I would even say we shouldn’t use the concept “right-wing” here. Of course AfD — we call it normal. Exactly. Because if you literally just take all the policies, the proposed policies of the German AfD, which everyone calls right-wing, extreme right-wing, neo-Nazi or whatever — it’s almost a Nazi party, they will use the Nazi word — what they said here when it was announced, when they did well in the region: Saxony-Anhalt. In the British press, the BBC, the propagandists at the BBC said “the far-right party, the first far-right party since the Nazis.” That was the headline. Mother of God. No. So one has to correct that. That is nonsense.

All their policies actually 20–25 years ago were supported in Germany — were the main policies of almost all the parties, including the left SPD, the socialist party. So really they’re just centrist. It’s a centrist party. But what happened 20–25 years ago is the CIA, which is very much in control of Germany since 1945 — they never gave up their occupation powers and they’ve always used them, and they claim legally they’re allowed to do all the things they do in Germany because of occupation status. Germany is still not sovereign, which is a whole other can of worms, but it’s a fundamental problem in Europe that Germany is not actually a sovereign country, and the parties and politicians essentially have to do what the CIA tells them. And the CIA will show them: here’s the law, occupation statutes — you have to do what we tell you. And of course there’s other ways to make them do what they want.

So the CIA gets what it wants from the politicians, and the politicians are not delivering what could be delivered to the country, such as high growth.

The points that the AfD is making are literally what was mainstream — parties even the left parties would consider centrist. So it clearly was not right-wing. SPD had the same views on immigration 20–25 years ago as AfD now. And you can demonstrate this. So what happened? The CIA 20–25 years ago shifted the entire political spectrum in Germany to the extreme Marxist left. The entire spectrum. So CDU/CSU, which is supposed to be right-conservative, is right out there with the Greens, with the lefty parties, and you just don’t notice any difference. And so AfD is just people who have decided: well, we’re not going for this propaganda. A man is a man, and whatever cultural revolution they’ve been trying to implement. We don’t want immigration. We don’t want large amounts. We don’t want to have mosques everywhere. We want people to get married, have children, and have a sovereign conservative life.

It doesn’t mean one has to be against people who have different views. I think that the most centrist people with these views are actually very tolerant of other people — like liberals. Exactly. Very tolerant. It just means that, hang on, you can’t force this on everyone to have these very different views, where most people just want to be normal.

Host: This right-wing / centrist position I think is going to sweep across Europe now. It looks to me — correct me if I’m wrong — but AfD didn’t get enough. They have to do a coalition with one party. And you know why? Because the mail-in vote was surprisingly extremely different only for AfD, and for the other parties they had lots of mail-in ballots. Sounds a bit like what happened with that mayor in Los Angeles.

Richard Werner: Yes. Yes. Well, many places in the US. And it’s very strange. In fact there were incidents they found in recent German elections where these ballots were sent out — ballot forms to care homes and elderly homes — that’s where a lot of funny business is going on. Or they accidentally sent five times as many ballots. One thing there was: basically they were caught. And so on. So it’s very…

Host: When’s the general election? When’s the next national general?

Richard Werner: I think it’s next year, isn’t it? Or is it 2028?

Host: AfD have a good chance of winning it, right? How will they try to stop them?

Richard Werner: You do see that the AfD is quite popular in the former so-called East Germany — it’s really central, middle Germany. And the AfD, you know, the former GDR, German Democratic Republic under communism — that’s where they’re doing really well. Whereas in Western Germany, essentially, we see that this post-1945 American programme of re-education, which is an official programme still running under the occupation statutes, has been very successful in brainwashing people. And it’s a sort of cultural Marxism programme which has been stepped up a lot in the last 25 years. And there you see the difference. Whereas in East Germany they didn’t have it until so-called reunification in 1990 — they didn’t have it — and therefore you don’t have that history, that prehistory of brainwashing people. And you see the voting results quite clearly.

Host: Oh man. Well, I think we’re going to see a wave of it. We need to get organised better in this country because our right-wing parties are splitting all over the place. But like I say, they’ve tried to stop Le Pen. They tried to throw her in jail, I think. Yeah, there was a criminal case. But Spain I think is going to have a right-wing revolution with everything that’s happened with Ceuta.

Sadly we’ve hit our one hour. People are listening. We’ve tried to make this happen three times and power cuts and air-traffic controls got in the way, and I feel like we’ve barely started. But this is a good start. We will have to do this again, Richard, and carry this on. I am going to spend some time understanding more about central banks and local banks and try and make that a lot more about what I talk about so people can understand what we need to fix our country.

Richard Werner: Excellent. It was too short, but I thank you and we will definitely do this again.

Host: Thanks very much. It will be a pleasure. And check out Richard’s books and Substack. We’ll put it in the show notes. Love you all. See you soon.

Richard Werner: Thank you.

4 replies 77 Read more →
MoneyMan ·Questions & Feedback ·2 months ago
Lots of new Updates

Lots of new Updates

Lots of new Updates

Lots of exciting things going on here at the foundation! First, we are continuing to improve the overall look of the site. Next we are working on adding a term glossary for terms that some may not know. We've also added a LOT of new features such as a blog, events calendar for important economic fut...

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MoneyMan ·Questions & Feedback ·4 weeks ago
New Teaching Resources

New Teaching Resources

New Teaching Resources

New Teaching Resources: Bring Monetary Literacy Into Your LessonsThe Monetary Literacy & Mastery Foundation has launched a new Teaching Resources section, bringing together practical activities, printable worksheets, and teacher guidance for exploring how money and banking work.The first two tea...

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W WatchMakingWebsite ·Economic Roundtable ·2 weeks ago
Should Economics Be Taught Through Real-World Simulations?

Should Economics Be Taught Through Real-World Simulations?

Economics can be difficult to understand when students only see definitions, charts and equations.

But what happens when students are actually asked to make the decisions themselves?

A useful classroom or homeschooling activity could place students in charge of a fictional central bank during an economic crisis.

Students could be given changing information such as:

  • Inflation rising from 2% to 6%

  • Unemployment beginning to increase

  • Consumer spending falling

  • House prices weakening

  • Businesses reducing investment

  • Energy prices suddenly rising

  • Government borrowing increasing

The student or group would then have to decide whether to:

Raise interest rates, cut interest rates, leave rates unchanged, or introduce another policy response.

After every decision, the teacher could reveal the next stage of the simulated economy and show the possible consequences.

For example, raising rates may help reduce inflation but could also weaken borrowing, investment and employment.

Cutting rates may support economic activity but could risk keeping inflation higher for longer.

The purpose would not be to find one "perfect" answer.

Instead, students would learn one of the most important lessons in economics:

Economic policy usually involves trade-offs.

Suggested Classroom Activity

Split students into small groups and make each group a fictional central-bank committee.

Give them the same economic data.

Each committee must decide:

  1. What is the biggest economic problem?

  2. Should interest rates rise, fall or stay the same?

  3. What evidence supports the decision?

  4. What could go wrong?

  5. Which groups in society might benefit or lose from the decision?

Each group then presents its decision before seeing what happens in the next stage of the simulation.

Discussion

Should economics education include more decision-making simulations, debates and real-world scenarios rather than relying mainly on textbooks and worksheets?

Could activities like this help students understand why central-bank decisions on inflation, employment and interest rates are often far more complicated than they first appear?

What other real-world economic situations would make good classroom simulations?

12 replies 173 Read more →
MoneyMan ·Questions & Feedback ·3 weeks ago
A New Home Page

A New Home Page

A New Home Page

A New Home for the Monetary Literacy & Mastery FoundationThe Monetary Literacy & Mastery Foundation has a new front door.Our redesigned homepage was built around a simple goal: make it easier to understand what the Foundation is, why monetary literacy matters, and where to begin.The Foundati...

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G Gizmo ·Off-Topic ·3 weeks ago
Favorite Animal

Do you have a favorite animal? I love meerkats but I would love to one day own a French Bulldog.

2 replies 72 Read more →
W WatchMakingWebsite ·Creative Corner ·2 weeks ago
www.WatchMakingWebsite.com - Ecommerce/Community Forums (No Stock Yet)

Welcome to my Creative and Passion Project/Business

I Bring To You!

www . WatchMakingWebsite .com

and with it

www , WatchMakingWebsite . com / Forums

It’s only recent started I finished the foundation backend of the website code now i am still going over a few minor adjustment and errors so if you see anything do let me know ASAP!

With that being said God bless you and take care!

Maybe I see you around over at WatchMakingWebsite!

With warm humble Regards, Ricardo/Die.Hard/Duke

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W WatchMakingWebsite ·Economic Roundtable ·2 weeks ago
Are We Entering a New Economic Era? Inflation, Interest Rates, Debt and the Future of Growth

For much of the period following the 2008 financial crisis, many advanced economies experienced unusually low interest rates, relatively modest inflation and cheap access to borrowing. Governments, companies, households and financial markets gradually adapted to that environment.

But what happens if that era is over?

This discussion asks whether the global economy is moving into a longer period where inflation is harder to control, interest rates remain structurally higher, government debt becomes more expensive to finance, and economic growth becomes increasingly difficult to sustain.

This matters far beyond financial markets.

Higher interest rates can affect mortgages, business investment, government budgets, employment, house prices, pensions, currencies and the cost of servicing national debt. At the same time, keeping rates too low for too long can create different risks, including renewed inflation, excessive borrowing and inflated asset prices.

The central question is therefore:

Can governments and central banks achieve sustainable economic growth while controlling inflation and managing historically large levels of debt?

Several forces deserve particular attention.

Inflation

Was the recent inflationary period primarily a temporary consequence of supply disruption, energy prices and extraordinary economic events, or have deeper structural changes made inflation more persistent?

Globalisation, ageing populations, labour shortages, energy transitions, geopolitical tensions and changing supply chains could all influence the future cost of goods and services.

Interest Rates

For years, businesses and consumers became accustomed to exceptionally cheap borrowing.

If borrowing costs remain higher than the levels seen during the 2010s, what happens to economies built around cheap credit?

Could higher rates encourage healthier capital allocation and saving, or could they suppress investment, housing activity and entrepreneurship?

Government Debt

Many governments carry substantially larger debt burdens than they did before the global financial crisis.

When interest rates rise, servicing that debt becomes more expensive.

That creates difficult choices between taxation, spending, borrowing and investment. Governments may increasingly have to decide whether resources should go towards public services and infrastructure or towards servicing existing debt.

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